868
AXPZ20 KNHC 280940
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue May 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N100W to 1011 mb low
pressure near 09N117W to 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from
08N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 06N to 08N between 85W and 88W, from 10N to 12N
between 103W and 106W, from 08N to 10N between 110W and 113W,
and from 10N to 12N between 116W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A scatterometer pass from 0430 UTC indicated moderate to fresh NW
winds off Baja California. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass
indicated 5 to 6 ft seas in this area. Light to gentle breezes
with 4 to 5 ft seas persist elsewhere primarily in SW swell,
except with 1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
west of the region and lower pressure over central Mexico will
continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate
seas off Baja California mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro into
mid-week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell
will prevail across open waters elsewhere. Hazy conditions may
persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Looking ahead,
expect building seas with the arrival of long period NW swell
beyond 90 nm off Baja California from late Wed through Fri, with
seas building up to 9 or 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer pass indicated moderate SW winds south of
the monsoon trough along rough 10N. It also showed light to
gentle breezes north of the monsoon trough, except for moderate
gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
overall. Divergent flow aloft associated with a sharp upper
trough reaching from central Cuba to Nicaragua is supporting a
couple of clusters of showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon
trough off the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Another
smaller cluster of thunderstorms is active off Guatemala.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate NE to E are expected in the
Papagayo region through Thu, increasing to moderate to fresh
speeds Tue night into Wed. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW
winds will persist south of the monsoon trough along roughly 10N
while light to gentle winds are expected north of it through Fri.
Combined seas will remain in the 3 to 5 ft range most of the
work-week as additional pulses of SW swell propagate across the
forecast region. Light haze from smoke caused by agricultural
fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over portions of the
Central America offshore waters through the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Convection continues to pulse near a weak low pressure area along
the monsoon trough near 16N117W. Local strong winds and rough
seas may be occurring for brief periods in the thunderstorm
activity within 90 to 120 nm of the center of the low.

Elsewhere, recent scatterometer satellite passes confirm mostly
moderate trade wind flow persists between roughly 08N and 22N
west of 120W, supported by broad ridging north of the region.
However, there are a few embedded areas of winds to 20 kt,
hinting the gradient may be tightening as the ridge builds.
Combined seas in this area are still 5 to 7 ft per recent
altimeter satellite passes. Light to gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft
combined seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the low pressure will likely weaken to a trough
in the next 36 to 48 hours between 125W and 130W. But building
high pressure north of the region will support an increased area
of fresh trade winds, mainly from 08N to 22N west of 120W,
allowing seas to build to 8 ft by mid week. Meanwhile, northerly
swell will move into the waters north of 25N and east of 130W Wed
and Thu, with maximum seas reaching 8 to 10 ft in a combination
of NW swell and fresh NW winds. Gentle to moderate breezes and
moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

$$
Christensen