405
AXPZ20 KNHC 192143 CCA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jun 19 2024

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America and southern Mexico Heavy Rainfall Event:
The broad gyre-type cyclonic circulation associated to newly
formed Tropical Storm Alberto over the western Gulf of Mexico is
drawing abundant moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean into the
coastal terrain of southern Mexico and northern sections of
Central America. This can cause life-threatening conditions that
include flooding and mudslides. Areas expecting the heaviest
rainfall through Fri continue to be El Salvador, western
Honduras, far western Nicaragua and coastal areas of southern
Mexico and Guatemala. Additionally, dangerous surf conditions
will impact these coastal areas through the next few days. Please
refer to your local meteorological and emergency management
office bulletins for more detailed information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends southwestward from just offshore
the Mexican state of Oaxaca from near 12N96W to 12N113W to
07N130W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N130W to 06N135W and
to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
within 60 nm of the trough between 96W and 100W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the
trough between 100W and 104W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between
104W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
south of the trough between 121W and 125W, and within 30 nm of
the trough between 125W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
heavy rainfall event.

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region. Fresh to strong southwest to west monsoonal winds
continue to feed into the broad gyre-type cyclonic circulation
associated to newly formed Tropical Storm Alberto located over
the western Gulf of Mexico. These persistent winds have produced
seas in the range of 9 to 11 ft across the offshore waters of
Oaxaca and Chiapas States in southern Mexico as reported by a
couple of ship observations. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate west
to northwest winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate
northwest well persist west of Baja California and near the
Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh west to northwest winds
along with 6 to 8 ft seas are over the offshore waters of
central Mexico and the rest of southern Mexico, including waters
near Cabo San Lucas. Gentle with locally moderate southerly
winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft dominate the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southwest to west winds, rough
to very rough seas, and numerous showers and thunderstorms, some
possibly strong, will continue to impact the offshore waters of
southern Mexico through Fri, primarily off Chiapas, Oaxaca and
southeastern Guerrero States. Dangerous surf is also anticipated
along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening.
Lingering northwest swell west of Baja California, mainly north
of Cabo San Lazaro will gradually subside through tonight. From
Wed evening through Fri morning, fresh to strong northwest winds
and rough seas should develop near Baja California Sur,
including the waters near Cabo San Lucas as pressure gradient
increases.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
heavy rainfall event.

Convergent southwest to west winds along with abundant tropical
moisture are resulting in scattered heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms in the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and
Colombia. Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for additional
convection in the region.

The broad gyre-type cyclonic circulation tied to newly formed
Tropical Storm Alberto that is over the western Gulf of Mexico
continues to pull in fresh to strong southwest to west winds and
seas of 8 to 11 ft over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador. Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds along with 5
to 7 ft seas are found at the rest of the Central America
offshore waters. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds and
seas at 4 to 6 ft persist off Colombia. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate to large southerly
swell exist near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southwest to west winds, rough
to very rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters of northern
Central America through Fri. Dangerous surf is also anticipated
along the coastal areas of this region until Fri evening. Farther
south, moderate to rough seas in moderate to large southerly
swell will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of
Ecuador into the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region.

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from north of Hawaii
to west of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient is
supporting moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and seas
of 5 to 7 ft from 08N to 24N west of 130W, and fresh northwest
to north winds north of 28N between 119W and 125W with seas of
6 to 7 ft there. For the remainder of the waters north of 10N
and waters near the ITCZ, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas prevail. Near the monsoon trough east of about 120W, mostly
moderate south to southwest winds are present, except for fresh
to strong southwest winds east of 107W. Seas with these winds are
5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft east of 107W.
West of 120W, generally gentle to moderate southeast winds are
present south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ along with seas of 5
to 6 ft.

For the forecast, little overall changes are expected through
the end of the week. SW to W winds and very rough seas south of
the monsoon trough are expected to decrease toward this weekend.

$$
Aguirre