Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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786 FXUS64 KEPZ 241740 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1140 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 226 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Warm, dry, and breezy weather through next weekend. Saturday will feature the strongest winds, leading to Extreme fire weather conditions. Dry weather will continue through the rest of the month with warmer temperatures next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Prevailing southwest flow over the weekend, keeping the region dry and temperatures steady right near normal for late May. Lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s through Monday, with afternoon winds 10 to 20 mph out of the southwest today. Subtropical jet streak aloft will lead to stronger winds on Saturday. 989mb lee surface low over SE Colorado and subsequent trough through New Mexico will promote efficient mixing into strong winds aloft during the afternoon hours. Sustained WSW winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph will be common. Patchy blowing dust may also occur, especially along the International Border and east of White Sands NP. The main impact with this increase in winds will be the critical to extreme fire weather conditions due to the combination of strong winds and very dry air. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Saturday as the risk for extreme fire behavior peaks. Broad ridge developing over the US Southwest within the flow aloft early next week, timed well with a surface high across the Southern Plains and westward push of the dryline boundary. We may see a moisture intrusion as far west as the Rio Grande valley Tuesday/Wednesday, but storm chances will remain well to our east as the shallowness of atmospheric moisture and quick diurnal mixing scours out any rain chances by the afternoon. The greater influence of a high pressure system over central Mexico will allow temperatures to climb locally. Above normal temperatures return Tuesday through the rest of next week with lowland highs in the upper 90s. NBM probabilities are highlighting a good chance for El Paso to see our first 100-degree reading of the year midweek. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. Surface winds southwest/west 12-16G25 knots diminishing to west 8-12 knots after 03Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 ...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON... Elevated fire danger today as wind speeds drop a bit from yesterday. Southwest 20-ft winds 10 to 15 mph along with min RH remaining very dry (3-10%). Smoke ventilation becoming Excellent by the noon time hour with transport to the ENE. Main concern will be Saturday afternoon as a jet streak aloft and subsequent development of a deeper surface low over the High Plains increases southwest flow across New Mexico and west Texas. Humidity remains very dry area wide, with min RH 5-13%. WSW winds increasing quickly during the late morning/early afternoon 20 to 30 mph with peak gusts around 45 mph mid-afternoon. Fire Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of Lincoln National Forest and Guadalupe Range to Extreme Risk due to the combination of hazardous weather conditions and above normal fuel dryness. Any fires that develop will spread quickly through the forested areas, and ongoing wildfires will be difficult to control. The only good news is that wind directions will remain consistent throughout the day, with smoke transport to the east. Rapid drying of fuels will continue next week due to the low humidity, poor overnight recoveries, and breezy afternoon winds. Winds speeds do look lower Sunday through the rest of the week, which may allow us to avoid future Red Flags. ERCs are near normal over Gila NF (60-75th percentile), but well above normal across the southwest lowlands and Lincoln NF (75-98th percentile). These numbers are forecast to increase quickly the next few weeks as continued dry weather and elevated fire danger continues. No precipitation expected through the rest of the month. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 94 66 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 88 59 91 59 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 91 59 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 88 58 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 66 46 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 89 56 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 80 51 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 90 53 89 51 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 88 54 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 90 62 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 92 55 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 94 57 98 59 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 84 58 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 92 60 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 89 56 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 89 64 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 89 55 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 91 56 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 90 59 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 88 57 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 81 52 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 76 50 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 76 47 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 81 48 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 87 53 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 88 51 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 81 47 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 84 48 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 87 51 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 82 52 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 84 51 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 89 53 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 89 56 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 89 53 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 83 52 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for TXZ055-056. NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner