775
FXUS64 KEPZ 160543
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1143 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Monday with lesser coverage going into Tuesday. Dry
conditions will then prevail for much of the remainder of the
week. Temperatures will continue to be near to about 5 degrees
above normal through the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Upper pattern through the first part of the forecast period will
be fairly persistent with ridge to the east and trough to the
west. The difference between today-Tue and Wed-Fri will be the
surface winds turn from S/SE to W/SW pushing the moisture out by
midweek. Currently have some showers and a couple thunderstorms
across northern areas but expect a little development far west by
late afternoon. Looks like areas south and east of KDMN have too
much of a subsidence inversion to get anything going. For Monday,
upper low gets a little closer and this cap weakens some,
especially west of the RGV so we will see some storm activity push
eastward, but still think it will be hard to get more than 20-30
percent coverage. Areas east of the RGV going into the evening
hours will see some isolated storms, but think that warm layer
aloft will limit coverage. Temperatures tomorrow will be a little
cooler out west with better cloud coverage, areas to the east will
continue to warm up to about 5-7 degrees above normal.

Upper low lifts out of the Great Basin on Tue, but one last
disturbance will interact with lingering moisture north and east.
Still not a great setup, so coverage remains mainly 20-30
percent, slightly higher in the Sacramento Mountains. Westerly
winds kicking in behind this system will help to warm western
areas back above average.

West to southwest winds kick in areawide by Wed and continue
through at least Fri. May get a little push of the dryline into
far eastern areas Friday, but confidence not too high and just
have some low Pops in the Sacs for now. Temperatures will remain
warm with the lowlands in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Some
differences in the timing of the next trough lifting out between
models, but the means of the EC and GFS ensembles seem to be in
decent agreement which isn`t as warm as the operational EC and not
as cool as the operational GFS. This compromise looks reasonable
with trough not moving very fast which makes sense given the
low is cutoff from the upper jet. Either way, looks dry for the
weekend and with dew points falling into the 30s, should have some
nice fall temperatures for overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Fairly quiet conditions tonight with a few outflow boundaries
sloshing around. There is some sign of redevelopment of showers
KDMN and west tonight. High resolution models have been capturing
this activity tonight but models have largely backed off on
scattered showers occurring there tonight with most recent data.
KDMN and KTCS may need future amendments to capture showery
activity. Otherwise, light winds AOB 10KT generally out of the
east expected tonight becoming southerly and low end breezy
(12G22KT) during the afternoon. Another round of t-storms expected
during the afternoon with much of the focus west of the Rio
Grande, but storm activity may shift east of the Rio Grande later
in the afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Low level moisture will be around for another day or two with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with the best
chances northern zones. Temperatures through the period will
remain near to above normal with west to southwest winds getting
occasionally breezy Wednesday through Friday. Expect RH`s to fall
into the teens by Thursday and remain that way into the weekend.
Vent rates will be good to excellent through the next 5 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  94  70  94 /  10  10  30  10
Sierra Blanca            62  90  63  88 /   0   0  20  20
Las Cruces               64  91  65  90 /  10  20  30  10
Alamogordo               62  89  63  89 /  20  20  30  30
Cloudcroft               46  69  47  66 /  20  30  30  40
Truth or Consequences    62  88  65  87 /  20  20  20  10
Silver City              62  81  63  79 /  30  40  30  10
Deming                   63  88  64  90 /  20  30  30  10
Lordsburg                64  82  63  86 /  30  40  30  10
West El Paso Metro       68  92  70  91 /  10  10  30  10
Dell City                60  93  62  93 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Hancock             63  95  64  94 /  10  10  20  20
Loma Linda               64  87  65  85 /  10  10  20  20
Fabens                   64  94  65  93 /  10  10  20  10
Santa Teresa             66  91  67  89 /  10  20  30  10
White Sands HQ           65  91  66  89 /  10  10  30  20
Jornada Range            61  91  64  88 /  20  20  30  20
Hatch                    63  93  64  90 /  20  20  30  20
Columbus                 66  88  67  90 /  20  30  30  10
Orogrande                66  90  67  88 /  10  10  30  20
Mayhill                  51  82  52  78 /  20  30  20  40
Mescalero                50  84  51  77 /  20  30  30  40
Timberon                 49  80  50  75 /  20  20  20  40
Winston                  51  80  53  80 /  20  40  20  20
Hillsboro                58  85  63  86 /  20  40  30  20
Spaceport                58  88  62  87 /  20  20  30  20
Lake Roberts             50  81  51  77 /  30  60  30  20
Hurley                   58  84  59  83 /  20  40  30  10
Cliff                    57  83  57  83 /  30  50  30  10
Mule Creek               53  81  53  78 /  30  40  30  10
Faywood                  59  85  60  82 /  20  40  30  10
Animas                   66  84  65  87 /  30  40  20  10
Hachita                  63  88  64  86 /  20  30  30  10
Antelope Wells           62  84  63  87 /  20  30  20  10
Cloverdale               59  79  60  81 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher