Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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635 FXUS64 KEPZ 142336 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 536 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024 There will be an increase in moisture across the area over the next couple of days with a chance for some showers and thunderstorms. Best chances will be west and north Sunday and areawide Monday. For Tuesday through Friday, much drier air returns with temperatures remaining above average and breezy afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Models and ensemble means all support main upper synoptic pattern of a mean ridge over the Great Basin region and a mean ridge near the Mississippi River Valley. This places the Borderland in generally a southwest flow pattern. The lower/mid level flow early on though, looks to be tapping some remnant moisture from Ileana which will move up into the region over the next couple of days. For tonight, almost all the moisture to work with is far east, so just expecting isolated storms in this area during the evening. Overnight lows look close to last night. Going into Sunday, start to get a better SW flow at H50 and some low level convergence that could be the trigger for some storms starting out west and then spreading toward the RGV and northern zones. Models not showing much of an upper trigger, and forecast soundings south and east from around DMN indicating a decent upper subsidence inversion which could limit activity more than the CAMs are showing. Only going mainly low chance out west and mountains with isolated coverage as you head east over the lowlands. Expect this inversion and loss of daytime heating to kill off most storms by around 03Z. Going into Monday, fairly deep upper low for September moves into the Great Basin and helps to start cooling temps aloft. This should allow for better coverage of storms across CWA into Monday night. Shear will be there, but instability still not great, but wouldn`t be surprised to get a few stronger storms, especially west. High temperatures will be a little cooler with increased cloud cover and moisture but still above average. Surface winds start to turn west to southwest Tuesday with just a few lingering storms possible far east. Otherwise, this will keep temperatures warm with main trough remaining over AZ at least through Friday. With the west winds in place for a few days, think the NBM temps may be a couple degrees too cool and raised them a bit. Overnight lows should cool off nicely though as dew points drop into the 30s and with clear skies, most areas will see 50s with some lower to mid 60s around KELP. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 510 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024 VFR conditions at TAF sites with Isolated -TSRA possible east of the Rio Grande through 03Z then VFR conditions area wide. For tomorrow, new TSRA will develop after 18Z for mainly mountains and lowlands west of the Rio Grande. Skies will be FEW-SCT 090-110 with a few CB through 03Z then SCT-BKN200-250 through most of the period. Winds mainly south to southeast 8 to 12 KTS but could gust over 30KTS near thunderstorms through O3Z, light winds afterward. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024 There will be a couple days with increased moisture across the area. Isolated to scattered storms are expected Sunday north and west and areawide Monday. Starting Tuesday, winds will be picking up each afternoon out of the west to southwest and RH`s will be falling into the teens, but as of right now, ERC`s will be high enough to limit the fire danger. All though this time temperatures will be near to above average. Vent rates will be good to very good the next couple of days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 96 72 95 / 0 0 10 10 Sierra Blanca 65 89 65 90 / 20 0 0 10 Las Cruces 65 94 66 91 / 10 10 20 20 Alamogordo 64 93 66 92 / 10 20 20 20 Cloudcroft 48 69 47 68 / 20 30 20 30 Truth or Consequences 63 91 62 87 / 0 20 20 40 Silver City 62 85 57 80 / 10 50 30 70 Deming 63 94 63 89 / 10 20 20 40 Lordsburg 62 89 62 86 / 10 40 20 50 West El Paso Metro 71 94 72 93 / 0 10 10 20 Dell City 64 94 65 93 / 10 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 65 95 68 95 / 20 10 0 10 Loma Linda 63 88 64 86 / 20 10 0 10 Fabens 68 96 67 94 / 20 0 10 10 Santa Teresa 68 93 68 91 / 0 10 20 20 White Sands HQ 68 93 69 91 / 0 10 10 20 Jornada Range 61 93 65 91 / 0 20 20 20 Hatch 64 94 63 93 / 10 20 20 30 Columbus 63 93 67 89 / 10 10 20 30 Orogrande 65 92 66 90 / 10 10 10 20 Mayhill 53 82 51 80 / 20 20 20 20 Mescalero 51 81 53 81 / 10 30 20 30 Timberon 50 79 50 77 / 20 20 20 20 Winston 52 81 51 78 / 10 50 20 50 Hillsboro 59 89 59 84 / 10 30 20 50 Spaceport 59 92 61 88 / 0 20 20 30 Lake Roberts 42 82 50 79 / 10 60 30 70 Hurley 59 87 57 82 / 10 30 20 60 Cliff 49 88 53 83 / 10 50 30 70 Mule Creek 45 83 51 80 / 10 50 30 60 Faywood 59 87 59 84 / 10 30 20 50 Animas 65 90 64 86 / 10 40 20 50 Hachita 61 90 63 88 / 10 20 20 40 Antelope Wells 63 90 62 86 / 10 20 20 30 Cloverdale 59 85 59 80 / 10 30 20 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen