706
FXUS64 KEPZ 022030
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
230 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 132 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Hot and dry, with breezy afternoon winds will be the theme through
the first half of the work week across the Borderland Region. Very
hot temperatures will overspread the desert lowlands Wednesday
through Friday, with hottest temperatures expected on Thursday.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms get introduced to
the forecast on Friday and Saturday, with temperatures staying
hot.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Quiet weather conditions and hot temperatures will be the theme
across the Borderland Region through the week. Weak flow aloft will
allow for light afternoon breezes and warming temperatures Monday
and Tuesday. High temperatures across the desert lowlands will top
out in the middle to upper 90s each afternoon. El Paso and vicinity
will flirt with 100 degrees on Monday and Tuesday as well.

By Wednesday, strong high pressure aloft will move north out of
Mexico and will continue to build in across the Desert Southwest. In
response, temperatures will continue to increase during the
Wednesday through Friday timeframe. NBM probabilities continue to
paint 104-107 degrees temperatures across the El Paso metro during
that timeframe. As of now, confidence is increasing that Heat
Advisory headlines will be needed. The hottest temperatures will be
felt on Thursday, with forecasted high temperatures of 107 degrees
for El Paso. Heat Risk values will range from Moderate to Major
across much of the area, with Major Heat Risk impacts for almost all
of El Paso County.

For Friday and Saturday, model and ensemble guidance continues to
differentiate from each other. The upper level ridge of high
pressure aforementioned above will generally stay in place across
the Intermountain West. This will ultimately weaken the dry
southwest flow we`ve be accustomed to in the low levels, allowing
east/southeasterly flow to increase. With east/southeasterly flow,
moisture will increase as well. This subtle but sufficient
moisture tap, in combination with an approaching upper level
system off the Baja Coast, will lead to increased shower and
thunderstorm chances. As of now, with confidence remaining low,
those rain chances are not too good, generally in the 10-30
percent range. But hey, at least it`s something. With the low
confidence in probability in shower/thunderstorm chances, comes a
larger range in high temperatures. On Friday, NBM 10th percentile
shows a high of 98 with the 90th percentile at 107, with Saturday
through early next week showing similar solutions. This just goes
to show the lower confidence in El Paso seeing any convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conditions expected with skies SKC to FEW250 through the
period. Winds will be breezy out of the SW at 12-17 knots with
gusts to 25 knots this afternoon and evening. Winds slowly
decrease back to 6-12 knots out of the W at 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

ELEVATED fire weather conditions will remain across most of the
forecast area through Thursday. SW afternoon winds of 10-20 mph,
warming temperatures, and Min RH values in the single digits to low
teens can be expected. By the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, southern
NM and west TX will experience the hottest temperatures so far this
year. As of now, no Fire Weather products will likely be needed in
the coming days with conditions remaining ELEVATED. Sufficient
afternoon mixing will allow for Very Good to Excellent smoke
ventilation rates.

By Friday and Saturday, an increase in moisture from the east
coupled with an approaching Baja California storm system, will
promote isolated lowland and isolated/scattered mountain showers and
thunderstorms. As of now, confidence remains low with regard to
that. Just something to keep an eye on as it could possibly pose the
threat of dry lightning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71  99  72 102 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            64  92  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               60  97  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               58  95  60  99 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               48  72  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    61  95  65  98 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              55  85  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   55  95  59  99 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                56  92  58  95 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  96  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                58  97  60 102 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             62  99  63 102 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               62  90  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   65  98  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             61  95  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           68  95  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            56  95  59  99 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    55  97  59  99 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 63  95  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                58  94  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  55  85  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                50  82  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 50  81  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  52  87  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                58  92  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                53  94  56  97 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             50  87  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   52  89  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    53  92  56  98 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               55  87  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  56  89  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   56  93  57  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  58  93  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           58  92  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               57  87  57  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers