678
FXUS64 KEPZ 010942
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
342 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Strong to near severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon with
the biggest threats being gusty outflow winds, hail, and dry
lightning. Dry, very warm, and afternoon breezes will be seen
Sunday through Tuesday. HOT temperatures expected Wednesday and
Thursday where El Paso could be nearing heat advisory criteria
both days. Our next shot for precipitation could be Thursday or
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Last nights convection over the TX Panhandle has pushed out an
outflow boundary which will continue to progress westward. This
will allow for good surface moisture to enter into the area and
may even make it as far west as the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) this
morning. Strong thunderstorms possible in eastern portions of the
CWA with the focus being strong outflow winds and hail. Good CAPE
values of around 1000 J/kg or so possible just east of the RGV, LR
are at least 8.5 C/km, and bulk shear is around 30-40 kts. With
that being said, strong thunderstorms possible with the potential
for near severe storms. DCAPEs are well over 1000 J/kg, adding
the potential for strong outflow winds. With these ingredients
forecasted to be in place, the dryline, shortwave, and orographic
lift will be enough to trigger storms this afternoon. Storm
chances expected to pop up around noon today and should be out of
the CWA by 6PM. Storms have the potential to be strong, but will
storms be in our CWA long enough to reach severe criteria?

The dryline makes another westward retreat Saturday
evening/Sunday morning but moisture completely gets sloshed out of
the area by mid-day, effectively killing our precipitation
chances. Sunday we can expect a typical spring time afternoon with
breezy afternoon winds and warm temperatures. This dry, breezy,
and warm regime continues into Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, an
upper low is expected to take shape Tuesday into Wednesday just
west of Baja California. Another low is expected to trek across
the northern CONUS allowing high pressure to build in to the area
by Wednesday. Hot temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon. 850mb temps on Wednesday could be around 34 degrees or
so for the El Paso Airport which puts high temperatures
potentially around 104F degrees that afternoon. In addition, winds
are expected to be calmer than normal which will add to the heat
as winds won`t be present to help cool the body down. Overnight
lows are nearing the 75F degree mark that night which puts the
area very close to heat advisory criteria. Thursday looks a tad
hotter than Wednesday bringing better confidence that we may reach
heat advisory criteria Thursday as 850mb temps around 36C, making
high temperatures at least in the 105F range. NBM probabilities
for Thursday afternoon of reaching 105F or greater is currently
47% for the El Paso Airport. Overnight lows that following night
is around 76F. It will be a bit breezier Thursday afternoon but
still fairly calm, making for a couple dangerously hot afternoons.


Last night it appeared that Thursday and Friday the Borderland
could have a decent shot at areawide precipitation chances but
newest model data is suggesting drier weather on Thursday with a
bit better potential for Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

VMC through forecast period. Shallow moisture intrusion from the
east reaching the Rio Grande Valley overnight and shifting surface
winds to the SE 130-160 AOB 6 knots. TS activity tomorrow afternoon
once again limited to the east of KELP, so no direct terminal
impacts expected. Surface winds shifting back to 220-250 at 10-15
knots tomorrow afternoon as dry air returns.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Elevated fire conditions will continue through early next week as
min RH values remain at or below critical thresholds with much of
the lowlands still seeing single digit RHs each afternoon. Expect
southwest to westerly breezes each afternoon that calms after
sunset, but 20 ft winds will not be close to critical thresholds
helping to limit the fire threat. Thunderstorms, with some
potentially being strong, are expected for Hudspeth and Otero
counties this afternoon. Storms will pop up around mid-day and
should exit the area by 6PM. The main hazards with these storms
will be gusty outflow winds, hail, and dry lightning. Moisture
will push westward Saturday evening/Sunday morning and should make
it to the Rio Grande Valley, but moisture quickly pushes east and
out of the area by mid-day, effectively killing any precipitation
chances that afternoon. Dry, breezy, and warm conditions continue
into Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will feature hot
temperatures, very light afternoon breezes and dry conditions.
Better surface moisture will start seeping in Thursday allowing
for a slight chance of showers that afternoon, but models have
been trending drier. Our next shot for areawide showers could be
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 100  69  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            93  61  93  63 /  20  10   0   0
Las Cruces               98  61  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               96  60  95  59 /  20   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               73  48  72  49 /  30   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    96  61  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              88  56  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   97  56  95  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                94  57  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       97  66  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                96  58  98  57 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Hancock            101  60 100  62 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               91  61  89  62 /  20   0   0   0
Fabens                  100  62  98  65 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             96  60  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           97  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            96  57  95  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    98  56  97  56 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 96  63  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                95  60  94  60 /  20   0   0   0
Mayhill                  84  52  85  55 /  30  10   0   0
Mescalero                84  51  83  51 /  30   0   0   0
Timberon                 82  48  82  51 /  20   0   0   0
Winston                  88  52  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                93  59  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                95  54  94  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             89  52  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   91  53  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    95  54  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               90  56  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  91  56  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   95  56  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  95  58  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           94  58  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               88  58  87  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher