943
FXUS64 KEPZ 120529
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1129 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Hot and mainly dry conditions are expected for the next several
days with dangerous levels of heat expected across the region
Wednesday through Friday. A few afternoon showers or storms will
remain possible over the Sacramento mountains with dry conditions
prevailing elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Upper ridging has begun as an upper low continues to move away
from the region. This ridge will continue to strengthen as it
expands over the desert southwest leading to another heat wave and
dangerous levels of heat, especially across lowland locations.
Triple digit heat in the lower elevations along with higher
elevations reaching into the 90`s will be common Wednesday through
Friday with Thursday likely being the hottest day of the week. As
a result, Heat Advisories have been posted for all but the higher
mountain elevations for Wednesday thru Friday. In addition, an
Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for Thursday and Friday for the
El Paso metro area and locations along the Rio Grande in El Paso
and Hudspeth counties where temperatures could warm to 110 or
higher.

Meanwhile models remain consistent with lifting a Baja low up over
the four corners by Friday. This will flatten the ridge somewhat
and bring temps down to below advisory levels over the weekend,
but triple digit heat will remain for most lowland locations. The
most impactful aspect of this approaching upper low will be an
increase in wind speeds for the western parts of the region
Friday. These stronger winds will combine with very low relative
humidity levels and dry fuels to produce critical fire weather
conditions across west central and southwest New Mexico Friday
afternoon. Needless to say the dry aspect of our early June
pattern is also expected to continue. The only areas that will see
rain chances will be the higher terrain of the Sacramento`s and
possibly parts of the Gila. But even in these locations, rainfall
will be very limited as only isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with skies SKC. Winds
will be light (4-7 knots) and generally VRB through the overnight
timeframe.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Very dry and hot weather will continue through the period. Shallow
moisture has moved out of the area, so overnight recoveries will
be a bit better than seen previous nights through this morning.
The dry line will continue to make appearances for areas mainly
east of the Rio Grande for subsequent overnight periods.
Otherwise, very dry afternoons are expected as min RH values fall
into the single digits. Enough moisture will linger in the
Sacramento Mountains allowing at least isolated thunderstorms but
chances for precipitation will be minimal elsewhere. Winds will
top out around 10 MPH each afternoon through Thursday. On Friday,
a passing short wave will increase winds especially for the Gila,
creating critical conditions. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch
has been posted for Friday afternoon and evening. Venting is
expected to be good to very good through tomorrow, improving to
very good to excellent by Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75 107  78 110 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            66 100  70 103 /   0  10  10  10
Las Cruces               70 104  72 107 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               65 102  69 106 /  10  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               51  79  55  83 /  10  20   0  20
Truth or Consequences    69 102  71 104 /  10  10  10   0
Silver City              63  97  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   65 105  67 107 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                65 103  67 106 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       74 104  76 108 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                66 104  69 107 /  10  20   0  10
Fort Hancock             67 107  70 111 /   0  10   0  10
Loma Linda               66  98  71 102 /   0  10   0  10
Fabens                   70 107  72 110 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             68 104  70 107 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           73 102  77 105 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            64 103  67 107 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    64 105  67 108 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 69 104  72 107 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                68 102  69 105 /   0  10   0  10
Mayhill                  53  93  59  97 /  10  30   0  20
Mescalero                54  89  57  93 /  10  20   0  10
Timberon                 53  87  56  90 /  10  20   0  10
Winston                  58  94  61  96 /  20  10  10  10
Hillsboro                66  99  69 102 /  10  10   0  10
Spaceport                62 102  64 105 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             59  97  61  98 /  10  10   0   0
Hurley                   60  99  64 101 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    60 107  61 109 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               65  99  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  65  98  67 100 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   65 103  68 106 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  65 102  68 105 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           66 102  69 105 /   0   0  10  10
Cloverdale               66  99  68 100 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM MDT Saturday for
     TXZ420>422.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Saturday
     for TXZ418-419-423-424.

     Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM MDT Thursday for
     TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM MDT Saturday for
     NMZ401-403>411-414-416-417-427>429.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for NMZ110-111.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown