Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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773 FXUS64 KEPZ 161131 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 531 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 118 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Weak high pressure aloft, and a dry westerly flow pattern across the Southwestern U.S., will keep the Borderland quite warm and very dry through mid-week this week. This means plenty of sunshine and continued triple-digit temperatures across the lowlands through Wednesday. After midweek, a pattern change will allow moisture to return to the area on breezy to gusty east winds. This will mean daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms as early as Wednesday, but more so late in the week, which will help to lower temperatures below the century mark. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 118 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 We are well within an established deep and dry west flow pattern across the Southwestern U.S., with a flat upper ridge of high pressure nosing in from the east over our region. This will keep our area very dry and quite warm. NBM max temperatures across the lowlands have all locations in the triple-digits. The means are a tad under Heat Advisory criteria, but bumping up to the 75th percentiles, which have been verifying more often than not, place our temperatures w/i the criteria for our lowest elevations, which include the Rio Grande Valley today and Monday. Thus that headline product remains in effect. The dry air means few clouds, and very low RH. The coupled-effects of the hot and dry conditions mean elevated concern for dehydration. Winds will be fairly light under this minor ridging this afternoon, but do trend a bit breezier by Monday as the pattern shifts a bit toward west coast troughing, with a deep SW flow ensuing, and some better surface troughing developing. Through at least Wednesday, most of the forecast area will remain within this hot and dry SW flow. The exception for Wednesday, will be our far eastern zones, where Gulf moisture is expected to make a return, for afternoon storm chances over the SACs/Guads/Otero/Hudspeth. The ejection of a trough across the Northern Rockies will allow a surface front to slide south and west down the Plains into the Central Mountain chain of NM for Wednesday. Subsequent hard pushes from the east Wednesday night and again Thursday night should result in overnight breezy and gusty conditions across our southern lowlands and sky islands, with a substantial influx of more gulf moisture. The dryline will be staged close by to our east initially, and then smear west and become diffuse near AZ/NM border, with 50+ dewpoints across our entire CWA by THU and FRI. This will result in daily clouds, and chances for areawide shower and storm activity, as an inverted trough (easterly wave) approaches from the TX Gulf Coast. These features tend to underwhelm, but it does give us some added dynamics, above the heating and orographics of the airmass instability. This will ultimately break the streak of 100s for our lowlands. Once the moisture arrives, there appears to be no strong flushing feature to remove it, so NBM keep the dewpoints in the 50s across the region well into the next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions at all terminals through the period. Skies SKC. Winds SW in the 10-20kt range. No VSBY reductions expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Yesterday showed us what the next several days will look like as we continue under a deep westerly flow regime, with weak high pressure nosing in from the west today. Through midweek that upper high will transition to a broad Western U.S. trough anchored to our west, but the resultant weather will continue almost the same. This means temperatures remaining well above normal, with very dry conditions keeping skies mostly clear, chances of rain nil, and relative humidity exceptionally low, with single-digit afternoons, and poor night/morning recoveries. Winds will tend on the breezy side for the afternoons, after lighter winds today, due to weak surface troughing. We see a shift in the pattern, with a transition beginning Wednesday. This shift will allow for a backdoor front to push in from the Plains, which will import healthy gulf moisture into the SACs and Guads for WED afternoon. So possible storms east, while the rest of the area will still be dry. However we see strong nightly east pushes WED and THU night, to smear that moisture all the way west to the AZ state line. With all areas see dewpoints rise to the 50s, RH will be elevated, and storm and shower chances will rise for the end of the week, and through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 107 77 105 76 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 100 68 100 68 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 104 69 102 68 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 102 66 101 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 79 54 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 101 69 100 66 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 93 62 91 59 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 103 64 101 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 99 65 99 62 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 103 73 102 72 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 104 66 104 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 106 68 107 67 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 97 67 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 106 70 105 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 102 68 100 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 102 75 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 102 64 100 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 104 64 102 64 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 102 71 101 68 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 101 67 100 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 91 58 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 89 57 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 88 56 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 94 56 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 99 65 96 62 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 101 61 99 59 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 93 58 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 96 61 94 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 101 58 100 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 94 62 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 96 64 94 60 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 101 64 99 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 100 64 99 62 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 100 65 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 94 63 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ411. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird