Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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346 FXUS64 KEPZ 140006 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 606 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Hot and dry conditions will continue into early next week with just a few showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and far eastern areas through Friday. High temperatures for the lowlands will continue to be at or above 100 degrees through at least Tuesday before a gradual cool down starts for the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Models in very good agreement through early next week. Upper ridge currently over the region will get broken down over the next 24-36 hours, which would typically bring a nice cool down in temperatures, but instead we get into a dry west to southwest flow which just keeps temperatures hot. The upper low that breaks down the ridge will not have much moisture with it, especially low level, but just enough instability that a few storms are possible over the mountains the far east Friday. NBM Pops seemed high and lowered about 10-20 percent, especially over the eastern lowlands. As the system passes, winds behind it will pick up over areas west of the Divide to 15-25 mph. Temperatures will drop about 2 to 5 degrees, but most lowland areas will remain at or above 100 degrees. Saturday through Tuesday will just see the upper flow go from west to southwest as another trough moves onshore. Occasional breezy winds, especially Mon/Tue will keep the fire danger elevated. Temperatures with the southwest surface winds will continue to remain in the triple digits for the lowlands but likely falling short of record highs. NBM temperatures seem to have caught onto the recent low bias and look reasonable most days. Additional advisories will likely be needed starting Sat RGV and across most of the lowlands by Sun, but for simplicity, will leave highlights going as is. As the upper trough deepens by midweek, the surface low will shift toward the Rio Grande Valley and bring in some low level moisture and cooler temperatures. Operational GFS is the most aggressive with this moisture push and cool down, but it`s ensemble mean is closer to the EC operational and mean, so will lean toward the mean for now. This brings in some isolated to widely scattered pops into the eastern zones by Wed afternoon and again Thu with a better westward push. Temperatures have the chance with a good moisture push and the southeast surface winds to drop highs down to around 100 for the El Paso area and mid to upper 90s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The very hot temperatures have manged to fire off a few thunderstorms. Little to no rain is reaching the ground, but these storms are putting out some strong outflow winds. KELP and KLRU have both seen some gusty outflow winds move across the airports. Those winds will drop off along with the few remaining thunderstorms over the next few hours. For tonight, we will see some mid and high clouds will remain this evening, but in general our ceilings will be unlimited. An approaching upper level storm system on Friday could give us some ceilings of BKN120 near the New Mexico/Arizona border, but the real impact from the system as it passes to our north will be some breezy winds Friday afternoon. and some isolated thunderstorms mainly in area mountains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Besides a few isolated storms this afternoon and Friday, dry and continued hot will be the story. West winds will increase later in the day Friday across SW NM. Expect a few hours of critical or near critical conditions over the Gila during this time. West to southwest winds will continue for the weekend into early next week which will keep temperatures around 100 to 105 with RH`s in the single digits for the lowlands. Winds will pick up once again toward critical speeds Monday and Tuesday and combine with these low RH`s. Possible moisture push for the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 78 106 75 105 / 10 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 72 99 71 99 / 10 10 20 10 Las Cruces 73 105 69 103 / 10 10 10 0 Alamogordo 72 101 68 100 / 10 30 20 0 Cloudcroft 58 78 55 77 / 10 50 30 10 Truth or Consequences 73 99 70 99 / 20 30 10 0 Silver City 68 96 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 Deming 68 104 63 103 / 10 10 10 0 Lordsburg 71 101 66 100 / 20 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 76 104 73 102 / 10 10 10 0 Dell City 71 102 68 102 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Hancock 73 106 70 106 / 10 10 20 0 Loma Linda 73 98 70 96 / 10 10 20 10 Fabens 72 107 69 105 / 10 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 72 103 69 101 / 10 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 75 101 72 100 / 10 20 10 0 Jornada Range 65 102 63 100 / 10 20 10 0 Hatch 70 104 67 102 / 10 20 10 0 Columbus 75 104 72 103 / 10 10 10 0 Orogrande 74 101 71 100 / 10 20 20 0 Mayhill 61 88 58 88 / 10 50 30 20 Mescalero 60 88 57 87 / 10 50 30 10 Timberon 58 87 55 86 / 10 30 20 10 Winston 62 89 59 91 / 20 30 10 0 Hillsboro 71 96 68 97 / 20 20 10 0 Spaceport 68 99 65 98 / 10 30 10 0 Lake Roberts 52 91 47 93 / 20 20 0 0 Hurley 66 98 63 96 / 10 20 0 0 Cliff 58 101 53 101 / 10 20 0 0 Mule Creek 57 97 52 95 / 20 10 0 0 Faywood 69 96 66 95 / 10 20 10 0 Animas 71 102 68 100 / 10 10 0 0 Hachita 69 102 66 100 / 10 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 71 102 68 100 / 10 10 0 0 Cloverdale 71 96 68 94 / 10 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ420>422. Excessive Heat Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ418-419- 423-424. NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ401-403>411-414-416- 417-425-427>429. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ110. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice