Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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312 FXUS64 KEPZ 091732 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1132 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Our stretch of hot weather will continue, although some clouds and isolated thunderstorms today and Monday will keep temperatures down a bit. By Tuesday and especially Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will climb back to near record levels as our sub- tropical high builds over the area. The high recedes some by Friday and Saturday, perhaps lowering temperatures a few degrees and bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms back to the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Baja low has moved up over southern Arizona this morning. The low will drift up to northern Arizona tonight with associated trough moving north across the CWA. This will give the area a chance of some showers this morning and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Next Pacific low moves to just west of the Baja next several days and becomes cut off and nearly stationary well into the new week. This allows Mexican sub-tropical high to build in over the Desert Southwest and gradually return us to the furnace. In the meantime Monday will still see some residual moisture around and perhaps a stray shower/thunderstorm, mainly over the mountains. Temperatures Monday could remain below 100 for most sites (that being the last time for quite awhile). By Tuesday the upper high is well in place and 850mb temps begin to climb. Tuesday high temps nearing advisory level again and the period Wednesday through Friday will be near record level highs for many places. Much of the lowlands will likely need more Heat Advisories and El Paso and the lower valley may Excessive Hear Warnings, especially Thursday. We will likely approach record heat Wednesday into the weekend. There is still some doubt about the heat Friday and Saturday as the upper high recedes southward as that Pacific low cuts across the area. Best guess is some cooler air moves in at mid/upper levels, but low level air (as indicated by 850mb temps) remains largely unchanged. Airmass will be drier too, all pointing to little relief from the heat. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with mid and high level clouds decreasing after 00Z. Very breezy winds that are being seen at KELP and KLRU should calm to 15G25KT in the next couple hours. Breezy winds will continue this afternoon out of the southwest becoming around 10KT after 02Z. Virga showers should generally continue this afternoon with thunderstorms possible near the Sacramento Mtns. A boundary will push in from the northeast tonight switching wind directions northerly around 06Z-08Z for KTCS and KDMN. Winds shift easterly in the morning hours tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Elevated to near-critical conditions to continue through this entire week as hot temperatures will persist. Slight chances of showers/thunderstorms this afternoon and Monday afternoon, but rainfall total potential on the skimpy side. Not much chance of rain remainder of week and by Wednesday into the weekend we will see near record high temperatures. At this time Friday looks to have the highest afternoon winds and thus a risk for RFW conditions. Min RHs: Lowlands 8-13% through Friday. Mountains 10-15% Gila through Friday and 15-25% Sacramentos through Friday. Vent rates very good to excellent through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 100 74 104 / 10 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 68 92 67 98 / 10 10 10 10 Las Cruces 70 97 68 103 / 10 10 10 0 Alamogordo 66 94 65 99 / 20 20 10 0 Cloudcroft 50 74 49 78 / 30 40 10 10 Truth or Consequences 71 93 68 99 / 20 20 10 10 Silver City 62 87 61 93 / 10 10 10 10 Deming 66 97 63 102 / 10 10 0 0 Lordsburg 66 95 63 101 / 10 10 0 10 West El Paso Metro 73 97 71 102 / 10 10 0 0 Dell City 66 95 63 102 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Hancock 66 100 65 104 / 10 10 10 10 Loma Linda 65 90 65 95 / 10 10 10 10 Fabens 69 99 67 104 / 10 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 69 98 67 101 / 10 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 95 74 101 / 10 10 10 0 Jornada Range 65 95 62 100 / 10 10 10 0 Hatch 65 97 63 102 / 10 10 10 0 Columbus 71 97 68 101 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 69 94 66 99 / 20 20 10 0 Mayhill 53 82 53 89 / 30 40 10 10 Mescalero 53 84 52 88 / 30 40 10 10 Timberon 51 81 51 87 / 20 30 10 10 Winston 56 86 55 92 / 20 30 10 10 Hillsboro 65 92 64 97 / 20 20 10 10 Spaceport 63 93 60 99 / 20 20 10 0 Lake Roberts 57 90 56 94 / 10 10 10 10 Hurley 59 92 59 97 / 10 10 0 10 Cliff 57 96 55 100 / 10 10 0 10 Mule Creek 52 90 51 96 / 10 10 0 10 Faywood 62 91 62 96 / 10 10 10 10 Animas 65 95 63 101 / 10 0 0 10 Hachita 67 95 63 100 / 10 0 0 10 Antelope Wells 66 95 64 100 / 10 0 10 10 Cloverdale 64 89 63 96 / 10 0 0 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher