446
FXUS64 KEPZ 181951
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
151 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Southwest winds will keep temperatures warm and push moisture to
our east through the rest of the week. Slight rain chances for
the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County Friday afternoon
before another Pacific low brings clear and mild weather over the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Southwest flow aloft today as we sit between systems. Water vapor
imagery shows an upper low off the central California coast with
a high pressure system centered over Coahuila Mexico. Higher
moisture sits just off to our east, evident by higher dewpoints
further down the Rio Grande valley into southwest Texas.

This southwest flow regime points to warm and dry weather through
Friday, with temperatures likely to remain 5 to 10 degrees above
late September normals. Lowland highs will be in the lower-to-mid
90s, with El Paso 95-98 degrees.

Approaching Pacific low combined with a moisture intrusion will
allow storm chances to return to our far eastern forecast zones
Friday afternoon. This primarily applies to the US-54 corridor
eastward (Sacramento Mountains, Otero Mesa, and Hudspeth County),
with continued dry weather across the rest of southwest New
Mexico. Storm coverage looks quite spotty and El Paso looks to
remain on the dry side for now.

Pacific low ejects across the Central Rockies on Saturday which
should enhance surface westerlies and push any available moisture
out of the area. This weekend looks to be much more "early fall-
like" with lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s close to
seasonal normals, clear skies, and a slight chill in the air
overnight.

Light flow pattern next week with high pressure aloft over the
Southwest US. Quite a bit of uncertainty regarding rain chances
with the models showing large spreads in solutions and the light
flow difficult to resolve. Precipitable water forecasts are quite
lacking in recent model runs, thus I would expect most of the area
to remain dry next week with only a few windows of opportunity
for rain showers if the weather pattern is favorable. Best bet for
temperatures is warm but close to normal for late September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VMC through the forecast period under dry, southwest flow aloft.
Clear skies today with only FEW100 overnight. Surface winds
generally 210-240 at 08-12 knots this evening, weakening and
veering to 260-300 at 04-08 knots overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Dry and warm southwest flow across southwest New Mexico through
the rest of the week. 20-ft speeds 10 to 15 mph each afternoon.
Very Good to Excellent smoke ventilation with transport to the
NE. Mostly clear skies with no rain chances through Thursday, but
moisture intrusion Friday afternoon will allow for isolated
thunderstorms over Lincoln National Forest. Midday RH 15-25%, with
higher numbers over LNF. Pacific low crosses the Central Rockies
Saturday, bringing dry and mild weather this weekend.

Fuel conditions remain drier than normal for mid-September with
drought status still in place. The rest of September looks mostly
dry and warm for southern New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  97  73  97 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            64  92  67  90 /   0   0   0  20
Las Cruces               61  94  66  93 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               61  93  66  93 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               48  72  52  70 /   0  10   0  30
Truth or Consequences    59  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City              55  83  59  83 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                   58  92  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                58  89  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       68  94  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                62  96  70  96 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock             66  98  71  98 /   0   0   0  20
Loma Linda               64  88  67  88 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   65  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             63  92  67  92 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           67  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            61  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    58  94  62  93 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 61  91  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                62  92  67  91 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  53  84  56  82 /   0  10   0  30
Mescalero                52  83  55  81 /   0  10   0  30
Timberon                 52  81  54  80 /   0  10   0  20
Winston                  48  83  52  83 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro                55  89  60  90 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                56  91  60  91 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             48  82  52  82 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   53  86  57  86 /   0   0   0  10
Cliff                    50  91  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               53  83  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  56  86  60  86 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   56  90  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  56  90  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           55  90  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               54  83  57  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt