827
FXUS64 KEPZ 171141
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
541 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Lingering moisture and a slow moving weather system will generate
scattered mountain showers and thunderstorms with a few isolated
lowland storms today. Afterwards, dry and warm conditions will be
prevalent across the region through early Friday. There will be a
chance showers and thunderstorms for eastern areas Friday
afternoon before dry weather returns to the area through the
weekend and early next week. Warm afternoon temperatures will
continue with high temperatures running several degrees above
normal through to next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A large low pressure system centered over the Great Basin early
this morning will slowly lift northeast into the Northern Rockies
today and this evening. As it moves east, it will drag a moderate
plume of moisture over the local area to help fuel a 30 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains of the Gila
Region and Sacramento Mountains today. A few isolated storms will
be possible over nearby lowland areas, but will be unlikely for
the Las Cruces and El Paso metro areas. Stronger southwesterly
winds aloft will mix down to the surface for some breeziness this
afternoon, especially over portions of South Central New Mexico.
Temperatures this afternoon will continue to be warm and several
degrees above normal, meaning lower to mid 90s for most lowland
areas. Thunderstorms and breezy winds will quickly end by early
evening as the moisture plume shifts east of the area.

Wednesday and Thursday will be relatively quiet weather wise with
dry and warm conditions prevalent across the region. Another
Pacific low pressure system will deepen on the California coast
while a ridge of high pressure strengthens over central Texas.
This will result in a persistent southwesterly flow over New
Mexico and Arizona that will conditions dry with light breeziness
and afternoon temperatures continuing to run several degrees
above normal.

On Friday, the Pacific Low will move east into northern Arizona
strengthen the southwest flow aloft and setting up conditions for
pulling the dry line in west central Texas further to the west
into Hudspeth and Otero counties. Moisture behind the line will
help fuel thunderstorms over those counties with the best chance
for rain and thunderstorms being the Sacramento mountains. Areas
west of the Rio Grande are expected to remain dry and warm with
afternoon breeziness. Pacific low will quickly move into the
central Rockies Friday evening forcing the dry line and its
associated moisture back to the east and ending rain chances for
the local area.

The long term outlook for this weekend and the first part of next
week will see dry and continued warm above normal temperatures
though next Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will build over the
west coast while a low pressure trough deepens over the central
plains to put the local area under a dry and stable northwest flow
pattern aloft. This deep trough may allow for the first cold
front of the fall season to penetrate the region by the middle of
next week, but it is too early to tell if long range models will
continue that trend in later runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with variable CIG FEW080-BKN250 before 18z becoming
sct100 sct250 after 18z. There may be a few ISO TS across the
Borderland at least through 00Z Wednesday. Winds start out light
at less than 10 knots. After 18Z, winds will become gusty up to
29 kts and generally from the west southwest between 18 and 02Z
Wednesday. They will subside thereafter. There will be no
reduction in the VSBY across the runways.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Unsettled weather will continue today with a band of moisture
associated with slow moving weather system moving across the
region fueling a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the mountains with a few isolated showers and storms over the
nearby lowlands during the day. Also, southwesterly winds will
increase to the low end breezy category with some elevated fire
concerns in the lowlands of Sierra, Luna and northern Dona Ana
counties this afternoon. Rain chances and winds will quickly
diminish this evening.

For Wednesday and Thursday, moisture will be flushed out of the
area to the east and replaced by much drier air with lowland
minimum RH values expected to be in the lower teens in the
afternoon. Light afternoon breezes will keep fire conditions
elevated but below critical values. An approaching low pressure
system may pull the dryline back over Otero and Hudspeth counties
on Friday for a 30 chance of thunderstorms mainly over the
Sacramento Mountains and Otero Mesa with lesser chances in
Hudspeth county. Otherwise, dry conditions with above normal
temperatures and light afternoon breezes will through the weekend
into next week.

Ventilation through the week will be very good to excellent due
deep mixing and strong transport wind speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  95  70  94  69 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            88  64  90  64 /  10  10   0   0
Las Cruces               92  62  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               90  60  91  62 /  10   0  10  10
Cloudcroft               67  46  68  48 /  30   0  10  10
Truth or Consequences    88  57  89  59 /  20   0   0   0
Silver City              79  52  81  54 /  20   0   0   0
Deming                   90  57  91  58 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg                85  57  88  57 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       92  68  91  68 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                93  64  95  64 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             95  66  96  67 /  10  10   0   0
Loma Linda               85  63  86  64 /  10  10   0   0
Fabens                   93  66  93  66 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             90  63  90  63 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           90  66  91  66 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            89  60  90  61 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    91  57  91  58 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 91  62  91  61 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                89  61  89  61 /  10   0   0  10
Mayhill                  80  51  81  53 /  30  10  10  10
Mescalero                77  50  79  51 /  30   0  10  10
Timberon                 77  50  78  52 /  20   0  10  10
Winston                  80  45  82  47 /  20   0   0   0
Hillsboro                86  53  88  55 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                88  55  89  56 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             77  47  81  48 /  30   0   0   0
Hurley                   83  52  84  53 /  20   0   0   0
Cliff                    86  50  89  50 /  30   0   0   0
Mule Creek               79  52  81  53 /  40   0   0   0
Faywood                  83  55  84  56 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   87  57  89  57 /  10   0   0   0
Hachita                  87  56  89  56 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           87  55  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               80  54  82  54 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen