639
FXUS64 KEPZ 141155
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
555 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 352 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Tropical moisture will surge up into the Borderland today through
Monday, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain well above normal. Drier southwest flow
aloft moves in Tuesday through the rest of the week, for mostly
clear skies and temperatures a bit more seasonal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Satellite view early this morning shows moderate west flow from
the Pacific across the Great Basin and central Rockies. Further
south under weak southwest flow, some tropical moisture ahead of
TS Ileana moved up into the CWA last night and this morning,
kicking off a few showers. The bulk of Ileana moisture will remain
to our south, but some mid/high level moisture will continue over
our area Sunday and Monday. Slight chance of showers/thunderstorms
this afternoon/tonight over Hudspeth, Otero and Hidalgo Counties.
Upper trough over central California will move across the area
Sunday as it weakens. This will allow a better chance of showers
and thunderstorms over the CWA, but still mostly north and west of
Las Cruces. Despite the moisture/clouds/precip, high temperatures
will remain well above normal as h85 temps show little decrease.

Large Pacific upper low moves over the Great Basin Monday. PWs and
dewpoints reach their peak, and so with weak shortwaves rotating
around the Great Basin low, expect some showers/thunderstorms
across all zones, though best focus of heavier rain looks to be
over the Gila/Black Range (WPC ERO-Marginal both Sun/Mon for this
area).

By Tuesday the upper low begins lifting north over the northern
Rockies with main trough beginning to sweep through New Mexico.
This will begin forcing the moisture east, though at current model
speeds, this will still allow a chance of thunderstorms over
eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties. This dry air intrusion will
firm up new dry-line formation just east of our CWA by Wednesday.
Both GFS/ECMWF keep the dry line close but just east of the CWA
Thursday and Friday. Will keep all zones POP free Thu/Fri but will
have to watch for any forcing back west of this dry-line. Despite
the drying out and more sunshine, models show h85 temps lowering
so high temperatures will actually fall closer to normal during
this stretch.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Generally VFR conditions expected through the period. KELP
southeast...SCT-BKN100 BKN-OVC250 with an isolated -SHRA BKN090
through 15Z. Northwest of KELP...SKC-SCT250. Developing after
18Z...isolated BKN070CB -TSRA, mainly across Hidalgo, Hudspeth and
Otero Counties. Variable winds AOB 7 knots this morning, becoming
mostly south/southwest 8-12 knots this afternoon. Thunderstorms
west Texas could develop closer to KELP this afternoon but not
enough confidence to include in TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Not much in the way of fire concerns for the week ahead. Higher
moisture will lead to showers and thunderstorms today through
Monday, with best chances Sunday/Monday. There will be slight
chance of some heavier rain and flooding over the Gila/Black
Range Sunday/Monday. Drier air moves in Tuesday and should
maintain that through the rest of the week. Temperatures still
above normal through Monday, but then dropping closer to normal
Tuesday and beyond.

Min RHs: Lowlands 15-20% today, then 20-30% through Tuesday.
Mountains 25-35% today, then 30-45% through Tuesday. Vent rates
fair-good today, then good-very good through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  97  72  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            90  63  88  64 /  20  20   0   0
Las Cruces               95  65  94  66 /  10  10  10  10
Alamogordo               93  65  93  67 /  10  10  20  10
Cloudcroft               71  48  69  47 /  20  20  30  20
Truth or Consequences    91  64  89  63 /  10   0  20  20
Silver City              87  59  85  57 /  10  10  50  30
Deming                   94  64  93  63 /  10  10  20  20
Lordsburg                91  64  89  62 /  10  10  30  20
West El Paso Metro       95  71  94  72 /  10   0  10  10
Dell City                96  65  94  67 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             96  66  95  68 /  10  10  10   0
Loma Linda               89  64  87  64 /  20  20  10   0
Fabens                   96  68  94  69 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             94  67  93  68 /  10   0  10  10
White Sands HQ           93  69  93  69 /  10   0  10  10
Jornada Range            93  65  92  65 /  10   0  20  10
Hatch                    95  64  94  63 /  10  10  20  20
Columbus                 93  68  93  67 /  10  10  10  10
Orogrande                92  65  92  66 /  10  10  10  10
Mayhill                  83  53  82  51 /  20  20  20  10
Mescalero                83  53  81  53 /  20  10  30  20
Timberon                 81  50  79  50 /  20  20  20  10
Winston                  85  52  81  51 /  10  10  50  20
Hillsboro                92  60  89  59 /  10  10  30  20
Spaceport                93  61  91  61 /  10   0  20  20
Lake Roberts             85  52  82  52 /  10  10  60  30
Hurley                   89  59  87  57 /  10  10  30  20
Cliff                    94  51  91  54 /  10  10  50  30
Mule Creek               88  48  83  49 /  10  10  50  30
Faywood                  89  61  87  59 /  10  10  30  20
Animas                   91  65  90  64 /  10  10  30  20
Hachita                  91  63  90  63 /  10  10  20  20
Antelope Wells           90  63  90  62 /  10  10  20  20
Cloverdale               86  59  85  59 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner