Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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807 FXUS64 KEPZ 250841 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 241 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 Warm, dry, and windy conditions are expected today with critical to extremely critical fire conditions. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged. Winds relax for Sunday onward while temperatures will climb. The forecast is dry through the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 A sharp UL s/w is moving onshore as of 230AM with a corresponding jet max centered over the Northern Baja Peninsula. This s/w is expected to pivot eastward throughout the day, becoming slightly negatively titled as it does so. This shift will bring the main jet over NM extending into TX and OK by afternoon with a ~990 mb surface cyclone deepening over SW CO and into SE KS. A Pacific front will also pass west to east during the late afternoon and early evening. For our friends out east, this will mean another rough day of severe weather. For us, it means a windy day, which will combine with very dry air and dry fuels to create critical to extreme fire concerns. For much of the lowlands, wind gusts look to top out 40 to 50 MPH, but the Sacramento Mountains look to see the highest winds with gusts up to 55 MPH, slightly higher as you go into Lincoln County where CWA ABQ has a high wind warning. These wind speeds are particularly concerning given the ongoing Blue Fire, and any new starts will spread rapidly. Please, PLEASE do not do any outdoor burning today. It is a bad idea. Your actions could affect your neighbors` lives and livelihoods. Additionally, given the winds and unstable low-levels, dust sources will likely activate though it`s not clear how poor visibility will be. After today our weather becomes quieter as ridging begins to influence our weather. The ridge axis initially sets-up over us, but gradually slips east Wednesday into Thursday. This will keep us bone dry with warming temperatures and afternoon breezes. Earlier model runs had moisture slipping into Hudspeth and eastern Otero Counties Tuesday and Wednesday with NBM still holding onto some ghost chances for showers. Each successive model run, especially from the GFS and Euro, casts further and further doubt this will occur. As the ridge slides east into the Plains, deep SW flow will allow temperatures to climb well into the 90s with El Paso making a run at its first 100. Latest run of the NBM has El Paso hitting 100 on Tuesday. Afterwards, height falls and a minor trough passage look to bring highs back down a few degrees, but still well into the 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Most of the low end gusty winds have dropped off, except for KELP, where the low end gusty winds will continue for a few more hours. There are some high clouds moving across the region, but in general our ceilings our unlimited and that will continue through the day on Friday into Friday night. The gusty winds look to return for Friday afternoon, but they will stay a little lower than we saw on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 ...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY... As the headline says, today will feature critical to extreme fire conditions for almost the entire area. Only the Gila will see winds a bit lighter along with lower ERCs. The lower-elevations, including Silver City, and the Black Range will see more critical conditions with current RFTIs projected to be around 6-8. Across the New Mexico lowlands into Texas, RFTIs of 7-8 will be common thanks to winds of 20 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH, winds will be a bit higher across the higher elevations of Hudspeth County. Of particular concern is NM 113, the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains, where winds may gust as high as 60 MPH, especially across the northern portions of the chain into Lincoln County. CWA ABQ has issued a high wind warning for that area while a wind advisory is in place for the rest of the chain. RFTI is expected to reach 9 in portions of the zone with 8 covering the bulk of the remainder. A Red Flag Warning is in effect with added, strong wording to NM113. Wind direction today will be southwest to west. For the rest of the period, we will remain very dry with poor overnight recoveries and afternoon min RHs dropping well into the single digits. Winds will not be as strong, however, topping out 10 to 15 MPH each afternoon. No critical fire conditions are expected at this time although the higher elevations of Hudspeth County will be close or slightly over for Sunday. Afternoon vent rates will range very good to excellent each afternoon, with excellent forecast area-wide this afternoon. Smoke venting will generally be to the east or east-northeast though some variance to the direction is possible mainly at night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 95 65 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 91 58 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 91 56 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 88 52 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 64 42 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 87 55 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 77 48 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 89 51 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 85 50 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 91 60 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 93 56 93 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 98 58 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 85 57 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 95 58 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 90 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 90 63 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 88 51 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 90 51 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 90 56 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 88 55 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 77 48 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 75 45 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 75 45 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 77 45 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 83 50 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 86 49 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 78 43 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 82 45 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 84 48 88 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 79 49 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 81 49 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 87 50 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 87 51 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 87 51 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 82 51 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056. NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113. Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ415-416. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown