487
FXUS64 KEPZ 191133
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
533 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will be the theme through the
remainder of the weekend and through this upcoming week. The
hottest temperatures will be today and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with breezy
afternoon winds and warming temperatures through the
remainder of the weekend and into next week.

For today, a broad upper level trough over the PacNW will push the
upper level ridge east of the area, with deep southwest flow
overspreading the Desert SW. Weak surface trough across New Mexico,
along with deep afternoon mixing will promote breezy surface winds
across the area. Winds will range from 15 to 20 mph with higher
gusts up to 30 mph, generally out of the west to southwest.
Temperatures on Sunday remain similar to Saturday`s temperatures,
possible increasing a degree or two topping out in the mid to upper
90s.

For the start of next week, deep southwest flow will remain overhead
on Monday with the continuation of breezy winds. Dry air with mostly
clear skies will promote hot temperatures once again, hot by middle
to end of May standards, with temps ranging 4-7 degrees above the
seasonal average. Breezy winds remain in place on Tuesday with
continued above average warmth.

Flow aloft flattens out for the second half of the week. This means
continued very dry conditions, light afternoon breezes, plenty of
sunshine, and temperatures remaining above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC. Winds
will be breezy through the day, generally out of the SW at 5-10
knots during the morning. Winds will become 12-17 knots with gusts
to 22-27 knots during the afternoon. Winds will decrease back to
5-10 knots after 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Fire weather conditions will be ELEVATED to near-CRITICAL through
most of the period, with CRITICAL fire weather conditions expected
on Monday and Tuesday. A very dry airmass will continue to settle in
place across the Desert SW with Min RH values below 15% each
afternoon for almost all locations, slightly higher for the higher
terrain. Temperatures through the weekend will be 3-7 degrees above
the seasonal average with breezy afternoon winds.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all SW and south-central NM
fire weather zones. Min RH values will tank into single digits for
the desert lowlands, 8-15% for the Gila Wilderness and Sacramento
Mtns. Increasing SW flow aloft, along with weak surface troughing
and deep afternoon mixing across NM will promote breezy to windy
conditions on Monday. Winds will range from 20-30 mph with higher
gusts possible, generally out of the W/SW. Critically dry
conditions and breezy winds will continue on Tuesday.

With this extended period of very dry conditions and warming
temperatures, fuels (especially the 10hr and 100hr fuels) will
quickly dry and cure. Corresponding ERC charts will sharply increase
into the 90-97th percentile through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  97  67  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            92  63  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               95  60  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               93  57  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               69  48  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    91  59  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              81  52  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   93  54  94  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                89  54  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       94  64  95  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                96  57  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             99  61  99  64 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               88  61  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   97  62  98  64 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             93  58  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           93  66  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            91  56  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    93  55  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 94  59  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                91  59  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  82  54  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                80  51  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 79  51  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  83  50  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                88  54  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                91  54  93  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             83  48  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   86  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    88  53  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               83  53  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  85  53  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   91  54  93  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  91  55  93  54 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           91  56  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               86  55  87  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers