Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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648 FXUS64 KEPZ 222024 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 224 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Dry west/southwest flow aloft will continue our very dry and warm pattern. Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend and first part of next week, along with very low humidity. This will result in every day seeing at least elevated fire danger, with Thursday and Saturday likely becoming critical. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Look at current weather shows dry westerly flow over the CWA with main upper low now over the Pac NW. At the surfaced back door cool front has pushed west as far the Sacramento Mtns, but has likely seen it`s farthest west intrusion. Models show back door front retreating quite a bit eastward overnight otnight. The upper low will traverse east across the central/northern Rockies Thursday, with just the tail end of upper trough sweeping across our area. Thus with slight uptick in winds, elevated fire conditions will become low-end critical. So will issue RFW for Thursday with these expected conditions. Real no improvement seen beyond Thursday. Breezy winds expected each afternoon through Monday with winds Saturday becoming windy and likely another need for Red Flag warnings for Saturday. Temperatures will remain above normal, and GFS shows h85 temps next Tuesday/Wednesday that would support some triple digit lowland high temps. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR through the period with SKC-SCT250. Surface winds west/southwest 12-17G25 knots diminishing to west 7-10 knots after 04Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Continued warm and very dry for the forseeable future. Persistent dry southwest flow aloft is the main culprit, and these conditions will combine to produce elevated fire conditions through this weekend and into next week. Thursday and Saturday will see the strongest winds of the period, and fire conditions will likely become critical with the resultant Red Flag Warnings. Overnight RH recovery will also continue to be very poor. Min RHs: Lowlands 4-10% through Monday. Mountains 7-15% through Monday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 63 93 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 58 89 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 56 91 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 54 88 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 41 65 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 55 89 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 47 79 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 50 90 50 92 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 51 88 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 90 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 54 92 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 58 95 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 85 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 58 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 89 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 63 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 50 88 49 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 51 91 51 92 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 57 90 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 88 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 46 78 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 44 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 42 75 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 43 80 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 50 86 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 47 88 46 89 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 80 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 44 83 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 43 87 44 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 39 82 40 83 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 48 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 50 88 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 53 88 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 50 88 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 82 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ055-056. NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner