958
FXUS64 KEPZ 212011
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
211 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

Hot, dry and breezy to windy conditions will continue across the
Borderland through the weekend. The windiest days look to be
Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s
to mid 90s for the next week with no chance for rain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

Fairly persistent pattern across the CWA through the weekend with
a WSW flow continuing with a couple disturbances quickly moving
through. This will keep breezy to occasionally windy conditions
going for the region with temperatures within a few degrees of
normal. Winds will be in the 10-20 mph range each day except
Thursday and Saturday when a ripple in the flow increases them to
15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Winds aloft aren`t much stronger
than H85 those two days, so do not see any wind highlights being
necessary, but fire weather could be a concern.

Some minor differences in the models show up going into early next
week. Previous run of the EC had dryline pushing through area
Mon/Tue while the GFS and most of it`s ensembles kept it further
east. With some weak ridging moving into the area and upper low
associated with the high pushing onto the plains off into the
Great Lakes, feel like the dryline will have a tough time making
it very far and if it does, it will likely be very shallow and not
have much impact on our weather. Kept warm temperatures going, in
fact, even warming them up into the mid to upper 90s by the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

P6SM SKC-FEW250 through the period. West to southwest winds will
increase by 20Z at all terminals to 15-20G30KTS and slowly
decrease after 02Z. Winds will start to pick up again toward the
end of the cycle at the same speeds as today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

Little change in the weather pattern will keep it hot and dry
each day with breezy to windy conditions. The windiest days will
be Thursday and Saturday. Thursday`s winds look marginal for Red
Flag, but possibly an SPS to highlight the near critical
conditions as RH`s fall into the 3-8% range. Saturday looks
windier than Thursday with RH`s continuing to mainly be in the
single digits, so this could be the day with the greatest chance
of meeting critical conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  67  93  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            65  89  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               57  90  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               56  90  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               45  66  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    56  88  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              49  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   53  90  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                52  88  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       62  92  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                58  93  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             59  94  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               58  85  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   60  93  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             58  90  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           66  90  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            53  89  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    54  90  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 58  90  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                57  88  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  53  80  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                47  77  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 49  77  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  46  80  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                55  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                52  88  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             42  81  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   47  84  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    48  86  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               46  81  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  50  83  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   51  89  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  58  88  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           52  89  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               52  84  51  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz