063
FXUS64 KEPZ 280940
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
340 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Today will we see less activity across our area with the
possibility of a few showers and thunderstorms in the mountains
and the Bootheel area. The chances for showers and thunderstorms
will gradually increase this weekend and through the first half
of next week. The main threat from these storms will be heavy
rainfall that could lead to flash flooding and strong gusty winds
with frequent lightning. The afternoon temperatures will be in
the triple digits across most lowland areas through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Currently, there are a few light showers across the area. These
showers will continue to dissipate throughout the early morning.
The skies are mostly cloudy, the temperatures are on the mild
side with the winds light to breezy. For today, conditions will be
a little more settled as a flat ridge of high pressure centers
across the border of LA/AK/TX. The atmosphere will continue to be
humid with dew point temperatures mainly in the 40s across most
of the area with some mountain areas in the 50s. The PWAT values
will be above the climatological average, but not as high as they
were yesterday. However, with daytime heating, a few storms will
develop especially in the mountains and the southern Bootheel
area. The CAMs are suggesting that these storms begin to develop
around 1 pm and end before midnight. These storms will be non-
severe in nature with the main impacts heavy rainfall that could
lead to isolated flash flooding, frequent lightning and strong
gusty winds along out flow boundaries. The high temperatures in
the lowlands this afternoon will be warmer than what they were
yesterday afternoon. This will be due to few storm coverages. The
temperatures for EL Paso and the Lower Valley will be at or near
Heat Advisory criteria; thus, an advisory is effect for the
mentioned areas. For tonight, any remaining storms as mentioned
before should diminish by around midnight. There will still be
some lingering clouds with the winds light to breezy. With that
being said, there low temperatures on Saturday morning will be
above the normal for this time of the year.

For the rest of the period, active weather conditions will
persist with triple digit heat for most lowland areas. By
Saturday, the upper level ridge will amplify across the South
Plains while its center moves across north-central Texas, and as
it does, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms
mainly across areas west of the Rio Grande. The temperatures
especially in the lowlands will be definitely in the Heat Advisory
criteria. Because of that, a Heat Advisory continues for El Paso
and the Lower Valley, and has been included for the Dona Ana,
Luna Counties and the Tularosa Basin for Saturday. The
temperatures by then will be between 103 and 108 degrees, which
will be the warmest of the weekend. By Sunday, the ridge will
expand while steering the storms mainly into portions of eastern
Arizona while edging across the Continental Divide. By the first
half of next week, the expanse ridge will maneuver from across the
South Plains and the Southeast. The further east it goes, the
better chance we will see areawide storm coverage. Also, there
will be a few shortwave troughs moving mainly to our north, which
will enhance active weather across our area. Toward the end of
next week an upper level ridge will build in from off the Pacific
West, which will bring drier air to our area while limiting our
storm chances by then. However, storm chances will not be
automatically shut off as we will see storm developments from
residual moisture and diurnal heating. The temperatures next week
will still be hot with some lowlands still in the triple digits,
but not as hot as they were last week and parts of this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Most of tonight`s thunderstorms have died off, but we still have lot
of clouds so we can expect mid and high ceilings for most of
tonight. Skies will be less cloudy Friday morning, but we will
likely see clouds build again on Friday afternoon. Right now I do
think we will see some thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but they will
not be as numerous as today`s storms and will be most common in area
mountains. Winds tonight will be light from the west or northwest.
During the day on Friday, the winds won`t pick up much, but again
like today and yesterday, we could see some gusty outflow boundaries
that can move well off from their parent thunderstorms. If gusty
outflow boundaries develop tomorrow, we can amend TAF`s to account
for the winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Today will not be as active as the past couple of days; however,
there will still be a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly
in the mountains and Bootheel area. The main threat from these
storms will be heavy rain and gusty winds. Also, can`t rule out
an isolated thunderstorm or two across the lowlands west of the
Rio Grande. The 20ft winds will be light to breezy and
temperatures above the normal. Tonight recovery will be fair to
good. Storm that linger from the day will diminish by around
midnight. For Saturday, moisture will be limited especially across
the lowlands. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
mainly west of the Rio Grande and in the mountains. The 20ft
winds will be light to breeze with the temperatures above the
average. Saturday overnight recovery will be good to excellent.
For the rest of the period, there will be daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms with breezy afternoon winds and at and
above average temperatures. With that said, there will be no fire
weather concerns across the entire zones throughout the period.

The min RHs today will be between 18 and 24% in the lowlands and
between 25 and 40% in the mountains. The min RHs on Saturday will
decrease 2 to 4% in the lowlands and increase 1 to 2% in the
mountains. The ventilation rates will be poor to very good today
then poor to excellent on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 105  84 107  81 /  20  30  40  40
Sierra Blanca            97  74  99  71 /  30  40  30  20
Las Cruces              102  79 106  77 /  20  20  30  50
Alamogordo              100  74 101  69 /  20  10  30  30
Cloudcroft               77  58  78  53 /  40  20  50  40
Truth or Consequences    98  77 100  75 /  20  10  20  50
Silver City              92  70  94  69 /  30  20  60  60
Deming                  102  75 104  76 /  20  20  40  60
Lordsburg                98  73 101  74 /  20  10  40  60
West El Paso Metro      102  81 105  80 /  20  30  40  50
Dell City               102  76 103  73 /  20  20  30  20
Fort Hancock            104  77 107  76 /  30  40  40  30
Loma Linda               95  75  98  71 /  20  20  40  30
Fabens                  103  79 107  79 /  30  30  40  40
Santa Teresa            100  78 103  76 /  20  30  40  50
White Sands HQ          100  83 102  79 /  20  20  40  50
Jornada Range           100  75 103  74 /  20  20  30  50
Hatch                   102  75 105  74 /  20  20  30  50
Columbus                100  80 104  77 /  20  20  30  70
Orogrande                99  77 101  74 /  20  20  30  40
Mayhill                  88  63  89  58 /  50  20  60  40
Mescalero                88  62  89  58 /  30  20  50  40
Timberon                 86  62  87  56 /  40  20  50  30
Winston                  89  64  91  62 /  30  20  50  50
Hillsboro                95  74  98  71 /  40  20  50  60
Spaceport                99  72 101  70 /  20  20  30  50
Lake Roberts             90  65  93  65 /  30  20  60  50
Hurley                   95  70  98  69 /  20  20  40  60
Cliff                   100  68 103  69 /  20  10  40  40
Mule Creek               93  70  96  71 /  20  10  40  40
Faywood                  94  73  97  71 /  30  20  40  60
Animas                   98  72 101  72 /  20  20  40  60
Hachita                  98  73 102  73 /  20  20  40  70
Antelope Wells           97  71 101  71 /  40  30  50  80
Cloverdale               92  67  95  68 /  40  30  40  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-419-
     423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 6 AM MDT Sunday for NMZ407-
     410-411.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM MDT Sunday for
     NMZ427>429.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira