115
FXUS64 KEPZ 290919
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
319 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Plentiful moisture will persist across the Borderland this weekend
and into most of next week. High pressure aloft centered over
north Texas will push the highest moisture further west of the Rio
Grande Valley today, with the best chances of thunderstorms in
that area. Temperatures will be quite hot today before lowering
the rest of the week. This pattern will continue through Tuesday
before the upper high recedes further east. This will allow a more
even distribution of moisture, and hence chances of thunderstorms,
across the entire area Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Early morning WV imagery shows main upper high now over NE Texas
with moisture plume mainly over the western two-thirds of the CWA.
Expect another round of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening with
perhaps just a slightly better chance west of the RG Valley.
Increasing low level east flow over the eastern CWA could produce
better thunderstorm coverage, depending on if the convergence zone
can stay in the east. At any rate this east flow could very well
produce upslope over the Sacs; therefore will continue the Flash
Flood Watch for that area. Modest CAPE values this afternoon and
shear environment not too great, so with slow storm movement
expect flooding to be main threat today. Temperatures should peak
today for the entire forecast period with Heat Advisories in
effect for most of the lowlands.

While plentiful moisture will continue across the entire area
through the forecast period, model trends continue to show the
deeper moisture plume slowly shifting west Sunday through Tuesday.
Therefore I did tailor the POPs to that idea. Flooding still looks
to remain the big threat, though storm movement likely somewhat
faster on Sunday.

Upper high recedes further east starting Wednesday into Friday.
With the help of some Polar Jet energy dropping into the void
between the SE US high and the east Pacific high, moisture plume
begins to shift back east over all the forecast area. Hence POPs
should become more uniform once again. GFS also shows PWs maxing
out Wed/Wed night as high as 1.6". So Wednesday could be a day
with better flooding potential. Thursday and Friday should
continue this pattern, though with lower PWs. Previous models had
shown the East Pacific high to usher in drier northerly air by
Friday, but latest runs have given up on this scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Northerly winds will continue through much of tonight but will shift
easterly at terminals in the mid-morning hours tomorrow. Winds may
become breezy with this east push, especially for west facing
slopes. Thunderstorm chances exist again tomorrow afternoon and will
feature a bit better coverage than what we saw today. KELP and KLRU
will have the best chance to see a t-storm/shower in the early
afternoon whereas KDMN and KTCS will have the best shot after 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Not much fire concerns as far as new starts or growth, but
flooding near and in the burn scars will continue to be a concern.
Flood potential is elevated today across the Sacs as a wind shift
to the east and upslope flow could increase rainfall near the Salt
and South Fork scars. Flood potential should be less of a threat
Sunday through Tuesday as moisture shifts further west. Flood
potential looks to increase again Wednesday through Friday across
most of the fire zones.

Min RHs: Lowlands 15-25% through Tuesday, then 20-35% Wednesday.
Mountains 25-40% through Tuesday, then 30-45% Wednesday. Vent
rates very good-excellent today and Sunday, mostly good Monday
through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 108  82 103  81 /  30  30  10  20
Sierra Blanca           100  71  95  70 /  30  20  10  10
Las Cruces              107  77 101  75 /  30  40  20  30
Alamogordo              103  69  97  69 /  30  30  20  20
Cloudcroft               80  53  76  53 /  40  30  20  20
Truth or Consequences   102  75  97  74 /  30  40  20  40
Silver City              95  66  91  66 /  50  60  30  60
Deming                  105  75  99  73 /  40  60  20  60
Lordsburg               102  74  99  71 /  40  60  30  70
West El Paso Metro      106  79 100  79 /  30  30  10  20
Dell City               104  72  99  72 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Hancock            108  76 102  74 /  30  20  10  20
Loma Linda               99  70  93  71 /  30  20  10  20
Fabens                  108  78 102  76 /  30  30  10  20
Santa Teresa            105  76  99  75 /  30  30  10  20
White Sands HQ          104  78  97  78 /  30  30  20  20
Jornada Range           105  73  98  71 /  30  40  20  20
Hatch                   106  73 100  72 /  30  50  20  40
Columbus                105  76  99  74 /  30  60  20  60
Orogrande               103  73  97  73 /  30  30  20  20
Mayhill                  89  57  85  58 /  50  20  30  20
Mescalero                91  57  86  57 /  40  30  20  20
Timberon                 88  54  84  56 /  40  20  20  20
Winston                  93  60  88  61 /  50  50  30  40
Hillsboro                99  70  93  69 /  50  60  30  50
Spaceport               103  69  96  68 /  30  40  20  30
Lake Roberts             93  62  91  63 /  60  50  30  60
Hurley                   98  68  94  66 /  40  60  20  60
Cliff                   103  65 100  63 /  40  40  30  50
Mule Creek               97  67  94  65 /  40  40  40  60
Faywood                  98  70  93  68 /  40  60  20  60
Animas                  102  72  99  70 /  40  60  30  60
Hachita                 103  72  98  70 /  40  60  30  70
Antelope Wells          101  70  96  69 /  50  60  40  70
Cloverdale               96  66  93  66 /  50  60  40  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Sunday for NMZ407-410-
     411-427>429.

     Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ415-
     416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner