774
FXUS64 KEPZ 312003
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Generally dry and hot conditions will continue into next week.
Highs over the weekend will be in the 90s to near 100 for the
lowlands, but come the middle of next week, the hottest days of
the year are likely starting Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Models at least through midweek in good agreement with
deterministic and ensemble means. Tonight will see mostly clear
skies with similar low temperatures to last night. Dryline will
push toward the Rio Grande by morning, however. Early impact in
the forecast could be a few storms popping over the Sacs Sat
afternoon as that dryline takes some time to retreat east. Some
good instability in the moist side of the boundary, so a low end
severe storm isn`t out of the question in eastern Otero county.
High temperatures tomorrow will approach 100 around ELP and the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, with mid to upper 90s for the remainder
of the lowlands.

A stronger westerly flow sets up for Sun/Mon which will keep
moisture east of the area and surface winds increase to 15-20 mph.
The weak wave that brings this increased winds will drop highs a
degree or two for Sunday compared to Saturday. Little change for
Monday, but highs will warm back toward the highs of Saturday
which means a few triple figures return for the lowest elevations.

Starting Tuesday, an upper low sets up over Northern Baja which
then helps a fairly amplified ridge to setup over the Borderland.
Hottest days of the year expected come Wednesday and Thursday. H85
temps on both the EC/GFS are around 34C-36C with the ensemble
means not much different. This would translate to highs 100-108
for the lowlands. NBM temps only 102/104 Wed/Thu for KELP and
these look low, so raised up a degree or two which may still not
be enough. One thing that may help keep highs from getting to 108
would be overnight lows will still be falling into the lower to
mid 70s and light winds under ridge may prevent full mixing.
There is also agreement that there will be some moisture pushing
back to the west. Moisture still looks fairly shallow with
trajectories not coming off the Gulf of Mexico, but right out of
central Mexico. With the extreme heat, could still see some
isolated thunderstorms forming over the mountains and pushing onto
the lowlands.

By Friday, GFS is lifting low into the Four Corners region while
the EC lifts it north, but keeps it out in the CA area. EC seems
more reasonable given the strength of the ridge. The main impact
from these differences will be how hot Friday will be. Still looks
like most lowland areas will reach at least 100-105. Again, went
above NBM guidance, but may still be not hot enough if that ridge
remains in place.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

P6SM SKC-SCT250 through period. Dryline will push into far eastern
areas and with the possibility of FEW-SCT030-040, mainly along the
eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Hot and generally dry conditions through the next 5 days. A couple
of storms are possible over the Sacramento Mts Sat afternoon as
some moisture briefly pushes in overnight and lingers until mid
afternoon before pushing east. Winds will be on the increase for
Sunday and Monday with speeds of 15-20 mph expected along with
high temperatures over the lowlands around 100 and RH`s of 3-8%.
RFTI`s will generally be 4 with some 5`s thrown in around the
windiest areas. The hottest days of the year will arrive Wed as a
strong upper ridge builds in and highs will reach around 105 for
the lowest elevations, but most lowland areas will be right around
100 degrees. These temperatures are expected to continue into the
end of the week with some isolated storms possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71 100  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            64  93  66  94 /   0  10  10   0
Las Cruces               61  98  61  98 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               60  96  60  95 /   0  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               49  73  50  73 /   0  20  10   0
Truth or Consequences    62  96  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              57  88  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   57  97  57  97 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                55  95  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       68  97  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                60  96  60  98 /   0  20  10  10
Fort Hancock             60 101  60 100 /   0  10  10   0
Loma Linda               61  90  61  90 /   0  10   0   0
Fabens                   63 100  63  99 /   0  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             61  96  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           64  96  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            51  97  51  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    57  97  57  97 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 62  98  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                62  95  62  94 /   0  10   0   0
Mayhill                  52  84  54  86 /   0  20  10  10
Mescalero                48  83  48  84 /   0  10  10   0
Timberon                 48  82  48  82 /   0  10  10   0
Winston                  51  87  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                60  92  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                51  94  51  94 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             36  88  37  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   53  92  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    49  94  49  92 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               45  91  45  87 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  56  90  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   57  95  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  59  95  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           58  96  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               58  89  58  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz