124
FXUS64 KEPZ 192341
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
541 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 149 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Breezy to windy conditions will begin overnight and last through
Friday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto moves across our
area. Each day through the end of the period we will have a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. The temperatures will be below the
normal through Saturday, but will be increase to above the normal
Sunday through at least the middle of next week. The temperatures
in the lowlands will return to the triple digits next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Currently, the skies are mostly sunny with a few clouds across the
the far eastern CWA. The winds are light to breezy, the lowland
temperatures are in the 90s and triple digits. There are a few
thunderstorms that have been developing across the Sacramento
Mountains especially the northern side of it. The main impacts
from these storms will be gusty winds, lightning and hail. For
tonight, these storms that develop during the day will linger at
least through the evening hours before they move out of our CWA or
dissipate. There will be a few out flow boundaries combined dry
line boundary that is expected to move westward overnight. With
the outflow boundaries and dryline moving through the area, the
winds will be breezy to at times windy. With that being said,
there is a Wind Advisory for Dona Ana, Hudspeth and El Paso
until 6 AM Thursday and another Wind Advisory for the Hidalgo and
Southern Grant counties from 6 AM Thursday until 3 AM Friday with
winds 30 to 40 MPH with gusts up to 55 MPH. For Thursday, the
winds will continue to be breezy east of the Continental Divide
and windy along and west of it. Also, as Tropical Storm Alberto
has formed and it will continue to gradually propagate westward
while making landfall south of Brownsville. As it does, the outer
bands will start to impact us at least by the earliest mid
morning. There will not be much in the way of convection with
these storms as the instability looks to be on the low side. As
with passage of tropical systems, much of the precipitation will
be light to at times moderate. Even though these storms will be
mainly stratiform in nature, there are maybe a few embedded
thunderstorms especially at the beginning of this event. The main
threat from Thursday`s event will be flooding especially near the
burn scar areas from the recent fires.

For the rest of the period, showers and thunderstorms will
continue through at least the first half of next week. The
temperatures will be cool through the first half of the week as
moisture will be in place due to the passages of the remnants of
the Tropical Storm Alberto. By early next week, the temperatures
will gradually warm while they climb to above the normal. As of
now, the El Paso County look to get back into advisory criteria.
Also, a ridge of high pressure will develop and center across New
Mexico, which will also contribute to the heat as we dry out
somewhat. Under this ridge, there will be some residual moisture
that could bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW035-BKN250. The winds are expected to be
breezy to low end windy 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 40 kts and
out from between and southwest and the southeast until 10Z. The
winds will then decrease 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts
while generally out from southeast. They will be become breezy to
low end windy 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts thereafter.
There will be a few ISO to SCT TS in the vicinity of the terminals
at least until 02Z. In the presence of BLDU, VSBY could be
reduced to around 3SM. However, for the rest of the period, there
should not be any reduction in the VSBY across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

For this afternoon a few thunderstorms will develop far east of
the Rio Grande. The main concerns from these storms will be dry
lightning initially and gusty winds. However, as we get into the
evening and overnight hours any storms that persist will bring
heavy downpours. Tonight recovery will be good to excellent. For
Thursday, showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will begin
especially by around midday. The 20ft winds will be breezy and
temperatures a below the normal. Thursday overnight recovery will
be good to excellent; however, better than what it will be
tonight. For the rest of the period, there will be a chance
showers and thunderstorms across the zones. With that said, fire
weather concerns will be none to near critical through Friday then
none the rest of the period.

The min RHs on Thursday will be between 30 and 40% in the lowlands
and areas far east of the Rio Grande and vice versa in the
mountains and the rest of the area. The min RHs on Friday will be
between 30 and 40% in the lowlands and between 45 and 80% in the
mountains. The ventilation rates will be poor to excellent on both
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77  90  76  93 /  50  40  70  30
Sierra Blanca            67  79  66  86 /  40  70  80  40
Las Cruces               73  90  71  91 /  50  30  70  50
Alamogordo               66  89  67  87 /  30  40  70  40
Cloudcroft               50  63  50  64 /  40  70  80  60
Truth or Consequences    72  89  69  83 /  40  30  80  60
Silver City              64  84  64  77 /  30  20  70  60
Deming                   71  92  69  89 /  40  30  70  50
Lordsburg                70  92  69  86 /  20  10  40  60
West El Paso Metro       74  88  72  90 /  50  40  70  40
Dell City                69  83  67  87 /  30  70  80  40
Fort Hancock             70  87  69  93 /  40  60  80  30
Loma Linda               66  79  66  83 /  40  50  70  30
Fabens                   74  88  71  93 /  40  50  70  30
Santa Teresa             71  87  70  89 /  50  40  70  40
White Sands HQ           74  85  74  87 /  40  40  80  50
Jornada Range            67  87  66  87 /  30  30  70  50
Hatch                    68  90  69  88 /  40  30  80  50
Columbus                 73  90  71  90 /  40  20  60  50
Orogrande                71  85  69  85 /  30  40  70  30
Mayhill                  54  69  54  72 /  40  80  80  70
Mescalero                54  74  54  74 /  40  60  80  60
Timberon                 52  70  51  72 /  40  60  80  50
Winston                  58  80  56  72 /  40  40  80  70
Hillsboro                66  85  65  80 /  40  40  80  70
Spaceport                65  87  64  85 /  40  30  70  50
Lake Roberts             61  85  61  77 /  30  30  70  70
Hurley                   64  87  63  81 /  40  20  70  60
Cliff                    64  95  64  88 /  20  10  40  60
Mule Creek               67  90  67  83 /  20  10  30  50
Faywood                  65  84  64  80 /  40  30  70  60
Animas                   69  93  69  86 /  20  10  40  60
Hachita                  69  90  66  87 /  30  20  50  50
Antelope Wells           69  92  68  87 /  20  20  50  60
Cloverdale               69  89  68  83 /  10  10  30  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>424.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday for
     TXZ418>420.

     Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Wind Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 3 AM MDT Friday for
     NMZ404>406.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ411.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday for
     NMZ411.

     Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira