Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
151
FNUS74 KEPZ 292213
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
413 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on May 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Dry and stagnant pattern will remain in place across the desert southwest.
daily Min RH values will be in the single digits to low teens through the
remainder of the week and into early next week. Winds will predominately
remain west to southwest each afternoon through the middle of next week,
at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph, with no significant trough passages
expected. Temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 80s each afternoon
with slight warming by the weekend and into early next week. No precipitation
or thunderstorm chances in the forecast. An 8 to 14 day outlook has been
inserted at the bottom of this spot request. As we get closer to ignition
date, please continue to request spot forecasts.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 83-86.
Min humidity........6-9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest/north winds around 5 mph during the
morning, shifting to south to southwest during
the late morning to early afternoon at 7 to 12
mph. Gusts up to 15 mph possible. (predominately
diurnal and terrain driven during morning/overnight
period)
Mixing height.......10000 to 11400 ft AGL during the late morning
through evening timeframe.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 10 mph shifting to the west
around 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (39700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (93100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (161600
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........4 1 1 1 3
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1
Temp............68 75 78 81 82
RH..............15 11 10 8 8
20 ft wind......NW 6 NW 6 SW 9 SSW 9 SW 12
20 ft wind gust.10 12 15 15 18
Mix hgt (ft)....1400 7000 9800 10800 11400
Transport wind..NW 10 W 9 W 9 W 15 W 15
Haines index....5 5 5 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14 63 90 162 162
Ventrate Cat....POOR FAIR GOOD EXNT EXNT
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 55-58.
Max humidity........20-24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West/northwest winds 7 to 12 mph shifting to the
north around 5 to 9 mph during the overnight.
Mixing height.......Quickly decreasing to below 1000 ft AGL after sunset.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 18 mph shifting to the north around
14 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (151200 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(8600 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........5 5 3 5 5 5
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............80 73 67 65 64 62
RH..............8 10 12 15 16 17
20 ft wind......W 12 W 10 W 9 NW 8 NW 8 N 7
20 ft wind gust.18 15 15 14 13 12
Mix hgt (ft)....9400 1400 700 700 700 700
Transport wind..W 18 W 18 NW 16 NW 16 N 14 N 14
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..151 21 10 10 9 9
Ventrate Cat....EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 86-89.
Min humidity........6-9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North/northwest winds 4 to 8 mph during the morning.
Winds shift to southwest/south-southwest during the
late morning to early afternoon hours at 7 to 12 mph
with gusts to 15 to 20 mph possible. (predominately
diurnal and terrain driven during morning/overnight
period)
Mixing height.......Below 1000 during the morning hours. Heights will
quickly increase with heating during the late morning
and early afternoon timeframe to 11000 to 13000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 13 mph shifting to the south 10 to
13 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (38300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (126000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (164300
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........6 6 8 12
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............59 74 82 85
RH..............20 15 11 9
20 FT wind......N 7G12 W 7G13 SW 8G15 SW 12G18
Mix hgt (ft)....800 4000 12200 13800
Transport wind..N 13 N 13 S 10 SW 13
Haines index....6 5 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11 47 122 164
Ventrate Cat....POOR FAIR VYGD EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Winds
out of the west at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Min RH
values in the upper single digits. Overnight recoveries in the mid 20s.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Winds
out of the west at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Min RH
values in the upper single digits. Overnight recoveries in the mid 20s.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds out of the
west at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Min RH values in the upper single
digits. Overnight recoveries in the mid 20s.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 80s. Winds out of
southwest to west at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Min RH values in
single digits to low teens. Overnight recoveries in the mid to uppers 20s.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 60. Highs around 90 degrees. Winds out of
southwest to west at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Min RH values in
single digits to low teens. Overnight recoveries in the mid to uppers 20s.
.OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY JUNE 06 THROUGH WEDNESDAY JUNE 12...
...Put 8 to 14 day outlook text here...
Continued and consistent upper level ridge over the Intermountain West and
Desert Southwest through days 8 to 14. This will continue to favor above
normal temperatures during this period with persistent high pressure
overhead. Weak to moderate intrusions of moisture from the east and southeast
will be possible during the 8 to 14 day period, with possible chances of
precipitation. However, confidence is LOW with regard to that.
$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415232.1/EPZ
.DELDT 05/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov