Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
770 FNUS74 KEPZ 212331 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for NORMANDY FIRE...GILA NATIONAL FOREST National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 531 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MDT on June 21. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Fire weather conditions will be LOW. Showers with embedded thunder will be likely through the remainder of the evening. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible in and around the heavier thundershowers. Wetting rains likely. Excellent overnight recoveries of 65 to 75 percent with temperatures falling to the upper 60s to around 70. Winds will be breezy at 10 to 15 mph out of the east through the night. Conditions quiet down during the morning with partly cloudy skies. High temperatures on Saturday will top out around 90 with Min RH values in the 20s. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible during the afternoon with gusty/erratic outflow winds. .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the evening and early overnight hours. Wetting rains likely. Gusty and erratic outflow winds with any shower/storms that develop in the vicinity of the fire. Chance of pcpn......80 percent, becoming 40-50 after midnight. LAL.................4 until 0300, then 3. Min temperature.....Upper 60s to around 70. Max humidity........65-75 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening and overnight. Winds remain breezy out of the east to southeast at 8-13 mph. Mixing height.......600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 13 to 22 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6300 knot-ft). Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........81 81 85 73 73 56 Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD Chc of pcpn (%).80 80 80 40 40 30 LAL.............5 5 5 4 4 4 Temp............81 76 74 72 70 69 RH..............50 57 65 69 70 67 20 ft wind......E 11 E 11 E 10 NE 10 NE 10 NE 10 20 ft wind gust.20 20 18 20 20 18 Mix hgt (ft)....1600 1600 600 600 700 700 Transport wind..E 22 E 22 E 15 E 15 E 13 E 13 Haines index....3 2 2 2 2 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..34 34 10 10 6 6 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Becoming partly to mostly cloudy during the afternoon and evening. Scattered showers through the day. Scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......35 to 50 percent during the afternoon/evening. LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3 until 1500, then 4. Max temperature.....Upper 80s to low 90s. Min humidity........25 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening. Mixing height.......Becoming 8500 ft AGL during the afternoon. Transport winds.....East 13 to 15 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (18600 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (113800 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........42 42 22 27 37 47 Weather cov.....SCTTRD ISOLTD NONE ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD Chc of pcpn (%).40 20 10 40 40 40 LAL.............1 1 1 4 4 4 Temp............69 76 82 87 90 91 RH..............67 54 44 35 30 26 20 ft wind......NE 8 NE 8 E 8 E 8 E 8 E 9 20 ft wind gust.16 16 16 16 16 15 Mix hgt (ft)....1500 1500 6900 6900 8500 8500 Transport wind..E 13 E 13 E 13 E 13 E 15 E 15 Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..19 19 92 92 114 114 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD VYGD VYGD .SATURDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Scattered thunderstorms early in the evening. Scattered showers in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms late in the evening. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 2400, then 1. Min temperature.....Around 68. Max humidity........65 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 8 mph shifting to the north around 6 mph after 3 am. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the evening. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 9 to 15 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Very good (104800 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (5400 knot-ft) late in the night decreasing to poor (4300 knot-ft) overnight. Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM Sky (%).........38 24 40 30 Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD NONE NONE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE Tstm cov........SCTTRD ISOLTD NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 10 10 LAL.............4 4 1 1 Temp............88 78 73 70 RH..............25 35 43 51 20 FT wind......E 8G14 E 8G16 E 8G16 N 6G13 Mix hgt (ft)....8100 8100 400 400 Transport wind..E 15 E 15 E 14 SE 9 Haines index....3 3 3 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..105 105 5 4 Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR .SUNDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Isolated showers in the morning, then numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......60 percent. LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3 until 1500, then 4. Max temperature.....Around 93. Min humidity........21 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph shifting to the southeast 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......11500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the east around 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9500 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (99700 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM Sky (%).........17 9 16 Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD NUMRUS Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE ISOLTD Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 60 LAL.............1 1 5 Temp............68 83 92 RH..............65 43 25 20 FT wind......W 5G8 S 5G9 E 5G10 Mix hgt (ft)....1600 9900 11500 Transport wind..W 6 E 10 SE 10 Haines index....2 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..10 98 100 Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD GOOD .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... Partly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around 5 mph. .TUESDAY... Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows around 70. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around 6 mph. .WEDNESDAY... Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around 7 mph. $$ Forecaster...ROGERS Requested by...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2416500.0/EPZ .DELDT 06/21/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov