960
FNUS74 KEPZ 172036
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for South fork...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
236 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1500 MDT on June 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this
evening and Tuesday. RH levels will be between 6 to 12% for the
region. Wind speeds will be at 15 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph
this evening and lighter at 10 to 15 mph on Tuesday. A tropical
system from the Gulf of Mexico will arrive late Wednesday which
will bring cooler temperatures, extensive cloud cover, and rain
chances for the region. Thunderstorms are possible with this
system so lightning is a potential danger. Winds will become
southeasterly. This system will diminish fire weather potential
for the rest of the week. Ventilation rates will range from very
good to excellent.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 33 mph.
Mixing height.......10900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (240700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........5      5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0
LAL.............1      1
Temp............89     88
RH..............10     9
20 ft wind......SW 18  SW 18
20 ft wind gust.33     33
Mix hgt (ft)....10900  10900
Transport wind..SW 26  SW 26
Haines index....6      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..241    241
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 32 mph decreasing to around 5 mph after
                    3 am.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 19 to 24 mph shifting to the west
                    around 14 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (217200 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (16500 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........9      9      7      11     11     8
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............85     75     68     64     61     58
RH..............11     14     17     19     22     25
20 ft wind......SW 16  SW 16  SW 10  W 8    W 8    SW 5
20 ft wind gust.32     32     21     15     15     12
Mix hgt (ft)....9100   9100   1200   1200   1200   1200
Transport wind..SW 24  SW 24  SW 19  SW 19  W 14   W 14
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..217    217    21     21     17     17
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 7 to 13 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 11 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (58300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (146000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........6         2         4         5
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............57        71        81        87
RH..............27        21        13        10
20 FT wind......SW 3G6    SW 7G16   SW 12G22  SW 13G24
Mix hgt (ft)....4500      4500      9200      9700
Transport wind..W 11      W 11      SW 17     SW 17
Haines index....4         4         5         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..58        58        138       146
Ventrate Cat....FAIR      FAIR      VYGD      VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.JUNETEENTH...
Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs in the upper 80s. South winds around 8 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Not as warm. Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds around
14 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Showers with thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in
the lower 70s. Southeast winds around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...LANEY
Requested by...Jess rue
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416299.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Jesus.rue@usda.gov