Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
493
FNUS74 KEPZ 152224
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Antone...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
424 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MDT on June 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Mainly clear conditions can be expected to next few days. This
will result in a continuation of very dry conditions with Min RH
values dropping to around 10% each afternoon. In general winds
will not be extremely strong, but west and southwest breezes will
gust at times into the 20 to 25 mph range during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Meanwhile a combination of warm
daytime temps and decent transport wind speeds will result in
excellent vent rates for the next couple of days.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 9 mph with gusts to around
22 mph in the evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 17 mph.Dry and hot conditions will continue through most of southern NM
and west TX through Wednesday. The main fire concern will be low
RH values in the single digits with dry fuels. Winds will be the
limiting fact for fire spread as they will remain below 15 mph
though mid week. Moisture will return to the area as tropical moisture
is brought into the area from TX and Mexico. This will increase winds,
but also increase RH values into the 20-30 percent range. Storm chances
will continue for most of the higher terrain each day through the
weekend. Dry lightning will be less of a threat than last week with
lower level moisture in place and more rainfall reaching the
ground. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (168500 knot-ft) decreasing
to poor (2800 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines
Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........6 6 3 5 5 3
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............82 73 65 61 57 54
RH..............8 11 16 19 23 28
20 ft wind......SW 9 SW 9 W 7 W 4 W 4 W 3
20 ft wind gust.22 22 21 14 14 9
Mix hgt (ft)....10500 10500 300 300 300 300
Transport wind..W 17 W 17 W 13 W 13 W 10 W 10
Haines index....6 6 6 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..169 169 4 4 3 3
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 7 to 10 mph with
gusts to around 24 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Mixing height.......9300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (58900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (141000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (188900
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........2 2 3 5 5 4
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............54 60 69 78 82 83
RH..............30 26 19 12 10 10
20 ft wind......SW 3 SW 3 SW 7 SW 10 SW 10 SW 10
20 ft wind gust.13 13 20 24 24 24
Mix hgt (ft)....3500 3500 7400 7400 9300 9300
Transport wind..SW 14 SW 14 SW 22 SW 22 SW 23 SW 23
Haines index....4 4 4 5 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..59 59 141 141 189 189
Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR VYGD VYGD EXNT EXNT
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to
around 24 mph in the evening and overnight
becoming light.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 21 mph decreasing to around 8 mph
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (174700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(2500 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........4 3 4 4
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............79 67 59 53
RH..............11 15 20 27
20 FT wind......SW 10G24 SW 7G21 W 5G15 SW 3G10
Mix hgt (ft)....8300 8300 300 300
Transport wind..SW 21 SW 21 W 14 W 8
Haines index....6 5 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..175 175 4 3
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.JUNETEENTH...
Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest
winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds around 9 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Southeast winds around 10 mph.
$$
Forecaster...LANEY
Requested by...Rocky Beery
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416112.1/EPZ
.DELDT 06/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Rocky.beery@usda.gov