Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
987
FNUS74 KEPZ 192317
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Normandy...BLM-LAS CRUCES
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
517 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MDT on June 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 3 AM MDT
FRIDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED fire weather conditions through the remainder of this evening. Winds
out of the SW at 5 to 10 mph, becoming light after sunset. Winds will quickly
shift to the east between 9-11PM as the dryline surges west. Overnight
recoveries will be excellent. Winds will remain gusty at 15-30 mph with gusts
to 40-45 mph through the day out of the east. Moisture will increase with Min RHs
in the upper 30s to lower 30s. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm will
be possible through the afternoon and evening on Thursday.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Upper 60s to low 70s.
Max humidity........55 to 65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5-10 mph shifting to the north
around 5 mph late in the evening, then shifting
to the east 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 29
mph overnight.
Mixing height.......10600 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 8 mph shifting to the east
around 12 mph in the late evening and
overnight, then increasing to around 23 mph
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (84800 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (6900 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........4 4 10 11 11 4
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 10 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............90 82 77 74 72 70
RH..............13 16 19 27 40 51
20 ft wind......W 6 W 6 N 5 E 8 E 8 E 16
20 ft wind gust.10 10 8 21 21 29
Mix hgt (ft)....10600 10600 400 400 500 500
Transport wind..SW 8 SW 8 E 12 E 12 E 23 E 23
Haines index....5 5 5 4 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..85 85 7 7 9 9
Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Becoming
partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon and evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent, becoming 40-60 percent in the evening
and overnight period.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. East winds 18 to 30 mph. With gusts up to 45mph
possible. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 29 to 37 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (66200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (152100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (191000
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........6 6 3 4 4 8
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 0 10 10 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............69 76 82 86 89 90
RH..............58 51 42 35 31 28
20 ft wind......E 18 E 18 E 20 E 25 E 25 E 23
20 ft wind gust.30 30 40 40 40 39
Mix hgt (ft)....2300 2300 4900 4900 6000 6000
Transport wind..E 29 E 29 E 35 E 35 E 37 E 37
Haines index....3 3 3 3 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..66 66 152 152 191 191
Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR EXNT EXNT EXNT EXNT
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of
showers through the night. Slight chance of
thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 to 60 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 1 until 2400, then 3 until
0300, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 20 to 40 mph with gusts to around 40
mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
overnight.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 34 to 41 mph decreasing to around 27 mph
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (176400 knot-ft) decreasing to fair
(46300 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing
to poor (33600 knot-ft) late in the night in
the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........45 71 71 78
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE NONE S CHC NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 40 40
LAL.............4 1 4 1
Temp............88 78 74 71
RH..............30 45 58 67
20 FT wind......E 23G38 E 23G38 E 21G36 E 20G33
Mix hgt (ft)....5000 5000 1500 1300
Transport wind..E 41 E 41 E 34 E 27
Haines index....3 5 4 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..176 176 46 34
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT FAIR POOR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
showers in the morning, then showers and chance
of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3 until 1500, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 18 to 23 mph with gusts to around 38
mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 21 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (51900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (114400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........81 78 74
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 70
LAL.............1 1 5
Temp............69 78 83
RH..............70 54 42
20 FT wind......E 20G37 E 23G38 E 20G36
Mix hgt (ft)....2300 4900 6300
Transport wind..E 25 SE 24 SE 21
Haines index....2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..52 94 114
Ventrate Cat....FAIR GOOD VYGD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
around 70. Highs in the lower 90s. East winds around 14 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. Southeast winds around
9 mph.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around
7 mph.
$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416410.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov