044
FNUS74 KEPZ 171822
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for South Fork...Mescalero Emergency Management
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1222 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1300 MDT on June 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Elevated fire danger today with southwest winds 15 to 20 mph and
min RH 5-12%. Winds peaking in the late afternoon with Excellent
smoke ventilation and transport to the NE. Winds will be a bit
lighter on Tuesday with similar conditions otherwise. Monsoonal
push of moisture from the southeast late this week will increase
humidity, rain chances, and cloud coverage Thursday through
Saturday. Temperatures will be much cooler those days under ESE
flow and Good ventilation. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can
be expected each afternoon, with gusty and erratic outflow winds
and possible new lightning starts.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 11 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......10300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 25 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (233400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........4      5      5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
Temp............86     85     85
RH..............11     11     11
20 ft wind......SW 11  SW 12  SW 12
20 ft wind gust.24     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....10300  10300  10300
Transport wind..SW 25  SW 26  SW 26
Haines index....6      6      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..233    237    237
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 19 to 24 mph shifting to the west
                    around 14 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (217700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (14800 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........9            13           13
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............84           69           62
RH..............11           14           20
20 FT wind......SW 11G25     SW 10G24     SW 8G21
Mix hgt (ft)....8700         1000         1000
Transport wind..SW 24        SW 19        W 14
Haines index....5            5            5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..218          17           15
Ventrate Cat....EXNT         POOR         POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......8800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (57900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (123700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........6            2            3
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............57           78           83
RH..............24           15           11
20 FT wind......SW 6G16      SW 7G21      SW 10G26
Mix hgt (ft)....4500         8400         8800
Transport wind..W 12         SW 16        SW 16
Haines index....5            4            5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..58           117          124
Ventrate Cat....FAIR         VYGD         VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.JUNETEENTH...
Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds around 7 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Not as warm. Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds around
11 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the
lower 70s. Southeast winds around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...LANEY
Requested by...Thomas Lapaz
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416290.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL thomas.lapaz@mescalerodrmp.org