179
FNUS74 KEPZ 091712
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Padilla...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1112 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1100 MDT on June 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
An upper trough will be moving through the area this afternoon
and bring a few thunderstorms to the burn area later this
afternoon. Winds will be on the increase as they shift around to
the south-southwest as the trough axis moves north. An approaching
cold front overnight will keep the chance for some showers and
some thunderstorms going overnight and tomorrow. The front will
drop high temperatures about 10 degrees Monday with higher RH`s. A
building ridge will bring above normal and much drier conditions
starting Tuesday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1400, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph shifting around to the south-southeast
                    at 7 to 14 mph by late afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 13 mph shifting to the south-southeast
                    around 12 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (34800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (50900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........89     75     67     67
Weather cov.....NONE   ISOLD  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   ISOLD  CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10     20     30     30
LAL.............1      2      3      3
Temp............68     69     70     68
RH..............48     42     39     47
20 ft wind......NE 6   E 7    SE 12  S 12
20 ft wind gust.18     18     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....4000   4000   4600   4600
Transport wind..NE 13  E 10   SE 12  S 12
Haines index....4      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..35     35     51     51
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Isolated
                    rain showers after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 11 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 5 to 10 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........79     79     68     59     59     54
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE ISOLD  ISOLD  ISOLD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30     30     30     10     10     10
LAL.............4      4      4      1      1      1
Temp............64     62     58     55     53     52
RH..............32     44     57     72     80     83
20 ft wind......NW 11  NW 11  W 10   W 8    SW 8   SW 7
20 ft wind gust.20     20     16     14     14     12
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..E 13   E 13   NE 10  NE 10  E 8    E 8
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0      0      0      0      0      0
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    west 6 to 14 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 7 mph shifting to the west 12
                    to 17 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (68200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........47        42        75        55
Weather cov.....S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        30        30
LAL.............1         1         3         3
Temp............51        53        57        59
RH..............83        65        55        45
20 FT wind......N 6G10    NE 6G10   E 9G17    W 11G18
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100    BLW100    5100      5200
Transport wind..SE 7      SE 7      W 12      W 17
Haines index....3         3         3         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0         0         60        68
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      FAIR      GOOD

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Wesley Moore
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2415862.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmadc@firenet.gov