Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
850
FNUS74 KEPZ 142253
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Antone Fie 6/14/2024...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
453 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 MDT on June 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...
Red Flag Warning will expire at 8PM this evening. Winds will slowly decrease
after sunset, becoming light and mainly terrain/diurnal driven in direction
during the overnight and morning timeframe. Overnight recoveries will be in
40 to 50 percent range. For Saturday, ELEVATED fire weather conditions will
remain with generally northerly winds of 5 to 12 mph with gusts of 15 to 20 mph
possible. Min RH values will be in between 10 to 15 percent. Deep afternoon
mixing will promote Good to Very Good ventilation rates. Warm and dry conditions
remain in place on Sunday.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear to partly cloudy (5-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 52-57.
Max humidity........40-50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 7-12 mph with in the
gusts to 20 mph in the evening. Winds will
become light at 3-9 mph during the overnight,
becoming terrain/diurnal driven with regard to
direction.
Mixing height.......11400 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....West around 14 mph shifting to the northeast 6
to 9 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (146900 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(3000 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM
Sky (%).........30 20 10 5 2 2
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............76 68 63 60 58 56
RH..............13 18 27 34 42 46
20 ft wind......SW 8 SW 6 SW 5 NE 4 E 3 E 3
20 ft wind gust.17 12 9 7 5 5
Mix hgt (ft)....11400 5400 700 700 600 600
Transport wind..W 14 W 14 N 9 N 9 NE 6 NE 6
Haines index....6 6 5 5 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..147 72 4 4 3 3
Ventrate Cat....VYGD GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-40 percent), becoming partly cloudy
during the late afternoon and evening.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 84 to 89.
Min humidity........10 to 15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds during the morning.
Winds will become 5 to 11 mph out of the west
to north during the afternoon hours.
Mixing height.......12600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 8 mph shifting to the west
around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (27500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (113400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........2 2 1 5 5 15
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............56 65 74 80 85 86
RH..............39 32 22 16 13 12
20 ft wind......E 1 E 1 NE 3 N 5 N 5 NW 5
20 ft wind gust.3 3 7 9 9 9
Mix hgt (ft)....3400 3400 10200 10200 12600 12600
Transport wind..NE 7 NE 7 NE 8 NE 8 W 10 W 10
Haines index....4 4 4 4 5 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..28 28 82 82 113 113
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD VYGD VYGD
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......12600 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....West 11 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (113700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(8400 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........42 13 8 4
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............83 69 63 58
RH..............12 19 23 27
20 FT wind......W 4G9 W 3G7 NW 3G7 NW 2G6
Mix hgt (ft)....12600 12600 600 600
Transport wind..W 11 W 11 W 15 NW 15
Haines index....6 6 6 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..114 114 9 8
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........8 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 6 to 11 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......12100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (26900 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(158000 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........3 4 4
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1
Temp............56 74 85
RH..............30 18 10
20 FT wind......NW 3G7 W 6G13 SW 8G18
Mix hgt (ft)....3000 11300 12100
Transport wind..NW 12 SW 14 SW 17
Haines index....4 4 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..27 158 184
Ventrate Cat....POOR EXNT EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest
winds around 8 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest
winds around 7 mph.
.JUNETEENTH...
Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest
winds around 7 mph.
$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Rocky Beery
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416140.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL rocky.beery@usda.gov