Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
231
FNUS74 KEPZ 171558
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for SHERIDAN SLASH PIT...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
958 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on September 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers and thundershowers expected through the morning and early afternoon
timeframe. Skies will be mostly cloudy, becoming partly cloudy during the
afternoon. Min RH values will range between 33-43 percent with temperatures between
67-72 degrees for higher elevations and 74-79 degrees for lower elevations. Winds
will be breezy during the afternoon and evening out of the southwest at 13-18 mph.
Winds will be lighter in the lower elevation drainages with more sheltering.
Winds will gradually decrease after sunset. Mixing heights will range from 5-6 kft
AGL for the higher elevations and 6-7 kft AGL for the lower elevations. If clouds
persist into the afternoon, mixing heights will be slightly lower. Excellent overnight
recoveries with Min temperatures in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly to partly (50-80 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thundershowers late in the morning.
Rain chances decrease to 0-10 percent during the afternoon.
Clouds will decrease as well.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent, decreasing to 0-10 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1200, then 1.
Max temperature.....74-79 at 5000ft
67-72 at 7000ft.
Min humidity........33-38 percent at 5000ft
38-43 percent at 7000ft.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds will be light and terrain/drainage driven through the
morning, gust/erratic winds of 15-25 mph near vicinity showers
and thundershowers through the morning. Winds become SW at 13-18
mph during the afternoon and early evening. Slightly lighter winds
for areas in lower elevation drainages with more sheltering.
Mixing height.......6000-7000 ft AGL at 5000ft elevation
5000-6000 ft AGL at 7000ft elevation.
If clouds stick around through the afternoon hours, mixing will
likely be lower than numbers above.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (87600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (106700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........76 50 30
Weather cov.....S CHC NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).20 10 10
LAL.............3 1 1
Temp............71 74 78
RH..............59 51 36
20 FT wind......SW 8G16 SW 12G22 SW 14G24
Mix hgt (ft)....4300 4300 6300
Transport wind..SW 21 SW 21 SW 20
Haines index....2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..88 88 107
Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD VYGD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 49-56.
Max humidity........70-80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 12 mph with gusts to around 18 mph
in the evening, shifting to the northeast around 5 mph
after 12 am. Terrain and drainage driven during the
overnight and early morning hours.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (84900 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........25 4 4 8
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............71 63 58 56
RH..............41 54 59 62
20 FT wind......W 12G24 NW 8G16 NW 4G7 NE 3G7
Mix hgt (ft)....5300 5300 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..W 14 W 14 NW 7 NW 5
Haines index....2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..85 85 0 0
Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 11 mph shifting to the
southwest around 11 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (54600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........9 8 5 7
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............54 60 70 75
RH..............64 53 36 27
20 FT wind......SE 5G9 S 8G16 SW 11G20 SW 11G20
Mix hgt (ft)....1800 1800 4100 5100
Transport wind..S 5 S 5 S 11 S 13
Haines index....3 3 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11 11 44 55
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR FAIR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. South
winds around 8 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. South
winds around 9 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Northwest winds around 9 mph.
$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...SILVER CITY DISPATCH
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422630.0/EPZ
.DELDT 09/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV