Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
345 FNUS74 KEPZ 161456 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for Hwy Bravo Piles...GILA NATIONAL FOREST National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 856 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on September 16. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorm through the day. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s with Min RH values between 37 to 43 percent. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. Winds light and terrain/drainage driven through the remainder of the morning, becoming southwest this afternoon at 7-12 mph with gusts up to 15 mph. Vicinity showers/storms could produce gusty (20-30 mph) and erratic winds. Mixing heights will increase during the late morning and afternoon hours with smoke ventilation rates increasing to Good to Very Goodthis afternoon. Conditions will gradually dry out during the late evening and overnight timeframe with great overnight recoveries. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly cloudy (50-75 percent). Slight chance of showers through the morning timeframe. Then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......40-60 percent. LAL.................3 until 1200, then 4. Max temperature.....Around 77-82. Min humidity........38-43 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 3-7 mph shifting to the southwest around 8-12 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near vicinity showers and thunderstorms. Mixing height.......6000 to 6000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 10 to 16 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (19800 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (100800 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM Sky (%).........65 70 75 75 70 Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 50 50 50 LAL.............6 6 5 5 5 Temp............63 70 75 80 78 RH..............54 46 41 38 43 20 ft wind......SE 6 SE 6 S 8 SW 8 SW 8 20 ft wind gust.9 9 15 15 13 Mix hgt (ft)....2200 6800 6800 6700 6700 Transport wind..S 10 S 14 S 14 SW 16 SW 16 Haines index....2 2 2 3 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..20 99 99 101 101 Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD GOOD VYGD VYGD .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-75 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then becoming dry and partly cloudy during the overnight timeframe. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. LAL.................4 until 2400, then 3. Min temperature.....Around 53-58. Max humidity........80-95 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Winds becoming light and terrain driven during the overnight. Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 9 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6800 knot-ft). Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........69 69 64 61 61 62 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 30 20 20 20 LAL.............4 4 4 3 3 3 Temp............76 68 64 62 60 58 RH..............48 64 69 73 75 77 20 ft wind......SW 8 SW 8 SW 6 SW 3 SW 3 W 2 20 ft wind gust.13 13 9 6 6 5 Mix hgt (ft)....3400 3400 1100 1100 1100 1100 Transport wind..SW 9 SW 9 SW 7 SW 7 S 8 S 8 Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..31 31 7 7 9 9 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy during the afternoon with dry conditions. Chance of pcpn......30 percent, becoming 10 percent. LAL.................4 until 1200, then 1. Max temperature.....Around 78-83. Min humidity........25-30 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 8 to 13 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the morning. Mixing height.......6700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 22 mph increasing to around 24 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (41500 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (139400 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........55 30 13 9 Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE NONE NONE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 10 10 LAL.............4 4 1 1 Temp............57 66 76 80 RH..............90 72 41 30 20 FT wind......SW 4G8 SW 8G15 SW 11G18 SW 13G24 Mix hgt (ft)....2600 2600 5800 6700 Transport wind..S 14 S 14 SW 22 SW 24 Haines index....2 2 2 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..42 42 117 139 Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR VYGD VYGD .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs around 80. West winds around 6 mph. .THURSDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds around 5 mph. .FRIDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. West winds around 5 mph. $$ Forecaster...ROGERS Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2422529.0/EPZ .DELDT 09/16/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov