Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
326
FNUS74 KEPZ 200021
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Antone Fire...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
621 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on June 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight recovery will be good. For Thursday, the airmass will be
slightly humid. There will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms with the main treat from any storms will be
lightning and gusty winds.The 20ft winds will be low end breezy
and generally out from the southeast with the temperature below
the normal. Thursday overnight recovery will be very good. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue through the evening and possibly
the overnight hours. For the rest of the period, there will be
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. The
winds will be generally breezy and the temperatures below the
normal while gradually increasing to near the average each
consecutive day.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 24 to 29 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (51200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (133400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (153200
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........26 26 14 8 8 15
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 0 10 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............56 63 70 75 78 79
RH..............77 67 51 42 35 32
20 ft wind......SE 13 SE 13 SE 14 SE 13 SE 13 SE 12
20 ft wind gust.26 26 26 24 24 23
Mix hgt (ft)....2000 2000 5800 5800 7500 7500
Transport wind..SE 26 SE 26 SE 29 SE 29 SE 24 SE 24
Haines index....2 2 2 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..51 51 133 133 153 153
Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR VYGD VYGD EXNT EXNT
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 2400, then 4 until
0300, then 3.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 11 to 12 mph with gusts to
around 33 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 24 to 28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (137700 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(9300 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........13 13 27 53 53 73
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 40 40 40 40
LAL.............4 4 4 4 4 4
Temp............76 69 64 61 59 57
RH..............34 46 58 67 76 81
20 ft wind......SE 12 SE 12 SE 12 S 12 S 12 S 11
20 ft wind gust.33 33 31 30 30 28
Mix hgt (ft)....6000 6000 400 400 1100 1100
Transport wind..SE 28 SE 28 SE 25 SE 25 S 24 S 24
Haines index....3 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..138 138 9 9 24 24
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
showers in the morning, then rain showers
likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (42400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (106600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........79 78 84 83
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 60 60
LAL.............1 1 5 5
Temp............56 64 70 73
RH..............86 70 59 49
20 FT wind......SE 10G18 SE 8G16 S 7G15 S 6G13
Mix hgt (ft)....2200 2200 5200 5800
Transport wind..SE 22 SE 22 S 24 S 21
Haines index....2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..42 42 104 107
Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR VYGD VYGD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs around 80. Light winds.
$$
Forecaster...TEXEIRA
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416319.3/EPZ
.DELDT 06/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov