Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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409 FXUS64 KEWX 270606 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 106 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Our weather today is being dominated by the upper level ridge to the south over Mexico...a trough moving through the Central Plains...and some fast zonal flow in the mid levels across west Texas. Clouds have been stubborn to move out of the region today...waiting for the NW 850mb winds to push them out. As of this writing clouds are still over I-35 and eastward...with nearly clear skies over the Hill Country and the Rio Grande area. The surface trough/dryline is making a surge eastward out west...into Val Verde County and portions of Edwards County. With Temps over 100 and dewpoints dropping fast...issued a Fire Danger Statement as RH should drop below 10 percent later today. That surge of dry air will not really make it past a Fredericksburg to Eagle Pass line...so most of the area will remain in the hazy, hot, smokey airmass. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat warnings remain in effect...although the cloudcover mentioned above is delaying a lot of the hottest temps. There is still a strong likelihood we will hit criteria so no changes to the ongoing look or timing of the heat products. The Advisory/Warning is carried overnight into tomorrow until 8 PM Monday. By this evening look for the clouds to thin before reforming overnight with lows in the 70s...low 80s along the Rio Grande. Another cloudy morning on Monday is expected. Models are still going strong with heat/humidity Monday so everywhere except the Hill Country will remain in the Heat ADV/Warning. Some tweaks may be needed on the overnight shift if the clouds once again look to persist longer into the early afternoon...those few degrees could overall impact the decision making of counties in/out of the Heat products. Will be carrying a 20 pop across most of the zones except the far west sections of Val Verde County Monday afternoon and evening. A few of the models including the GFS are showing convection over our region, likely from a ripple moving across in the upper levels and some meso type boundaries. Confidence is still low of exactly how many people could see storms on Monday. SPC expanded the marginal risk across all of the CWA tomorrow. If any storms do fire...with the intense heat expected...SVR storms would be expected...with some good wind potential. Any convection that does form...should dissipate by the time late evening arrives with Monday night expected to be fairly quiet unless some storm complexes can get going. WPC has painted some qpf over much of the CWA...again likely bullish in areal coverage...but at this point no real great way to tell where a favored area is based on a limited amount of models even showing the activity. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 "Cooler" temperatures are forecast for the extended forecast period with highs in the low to mid 90s across a good portion of the local area and upper 90s to 103 degree range along the Rio Grande. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon into the evening period. Storm development areas preferred are the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, areas along the I-35 corridor and the coastal Plains. Some strong to marginally severe storms are possible especially Tuesday and Wednesday with main hazards being damaging winds and large hail. Can`t ruled out a few rounds of heavy downpours through the period. Expect mostly cloudy to cloudy mornings with clouds breaking in the afternoon for the most part. It looks like Tuesday could stay mostly cloudy all day as mid to upper level moisture prevails over South Central Texas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Light E/S winds tonight will probably enable some of the low clouds to dip briefly into IFR. Some of the NAM MOS guidance was depicting VLIFR vsbys around the San Antonio area, so a drop to LIFR vsbys may need to be considered briefly. Typically when the overnight is this warm, the air remains too well mixed for dense fog, especially considering the very low soil moisture levels around SAT/SSF. Late morning MVFR cigs may mix out faster today than Sunday. In the 12Z update, we may consider a faster return to VFR well before 18Z, based on the limited amount of low cloud signals we see on satellite at the current time. Isolated storms are not accounted for in the late afternoon period in regards to wind shifts, but that may need to be adjusted later as storm outflows could expand out significant distances should storms develop at the right time. For now, we just have a subtle suggestion of 2 mid/high cloud layers to signal some instability moving into the region. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Climate....with record highs tomorrow at SAT/ATT/AUS all at 100...there is a chance that some or all of those could be tied/broken. DRT record is 106...which should be broken. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 94 73 89 / 20 30 40 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 95 71 89 / 20 30 40 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 96 73 94 / 20 20 30 20 Burnet Muni Airport 72 91 71 86 / 20 30 50 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 101 76 99 / 20 30 30 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 93 71 86 / 20 30 40 40 Hondo Muni Airport 75 97 72 94 / 20 20 40 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 95 71 91 / 20 30 30 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 93 75 89 / 20 20 20 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 95 74 93 / 20 20 30 20 Stinson Muni Airport 76 97 75 94 / 20 20 30 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Kinney-Maverick- Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Zavala. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa- Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales- Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Medina-Travis-Wilson. && $$ Short-Term...18 Long-Term...29 Aviation...18