221
FXUS64 KEWX 260609
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
109 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Low clouds have dissipated across South Central Texas early this
afternoon leaving mostly clear skies and hot temperatures on deck
for this afternoon. The dryline remains to the west of Val Verde
County, but may make it into its western reaches later today. Hot
and humid conditions are seen ahead of this with afternoon  highs
from the mid 90s to around 107 degrees. Heat indices will be in
excess of 108 degrees for the majority of areas today as elevated
dewpoints continue this afternoon. Only the Hill Country remains
without a Heat Advisory today as heat indices look to remain at or
below 106 degrees for them. Dry weather continues as it looks like
storms will fire off north of the area today.

Another night of warm overnight lows is seen with temperatures early
Sunday morning expected to be in the 70s to low 80s. Low clouds also
build in overnight that look to mix out around noon tomorrow.
Dangerous early season heat continues tomorrow. The dryline will
push much further east into the area than today, which will keep
heat indices lower in the west. That said, ambient temperatures will
still push into the 100-109 degree range over this area. East of the
dryline, heat index values will once again exceed 108 degrees in all
locations but the Hill Country and another Heat Advisory is
expected. Slightly less cloud cover Sunday night into Monday may
lead to slightly "cooler" lows this period for some.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

There are a couple of disturbances pushing over South Central Texas
late Monday afternoon into the evening that could trigger isolated to
scattered showers and storms across the Rio Grande and over parts of
the Hill Country. Some of these storms could be strong to marginally
severe with the main threats being large hail and damaging wind
gusts. Convective initiation is expected later in the day as daily
high temperatures reach the upper 90s and up to 109 degrees along
the Rio Grande. A Heat Advisory is likely to be in effect for a good
portion of the local area.

Tuesday is looking cooler based on cloud coverage across the local
area with highs in the low to mid 90s for the most part and upper
90s along the Rio Grande. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast once again late Tuesday afternoon into
the evening period as a short wave trough moves across central Texas.
Some of these storms could be strong to marginally severe with the
main threats being large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Wednesday continues to be "cooler" with highs in the upper 80s to
mid 90s and up to 101 degrees over some locations along the Rio
Grande. An approaching cold front pushing south over central Texas
may trigger some showers and storms ahead of it over the Hill
Country.

Chances for showers and storms continue into the latter part of the
week as upper level short waves move over or nearby South Central
Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Low stratus deck should be somewhat repetitive of what we had over
the past 24 hours with all sites remaining MVFR or better. There
could be a faster mixing to VFR later this morning as the models are
projecting a farther east push of the dry-line than from previous
days. For this reason, will show VFR skies by 16Z along I-35 and
also show a one hour delay in the return of low clouds late tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
(RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

         SAT        SUN        MON
        05/25      05/26      05/27
--------------------------------------
AUS   100/2011    97/2018   100/2011
ATT   100/2011    99/2018   100/2011
SAT   103/1989   100/1989   100/2011
DRT   104/2011   106/2018   106/2018

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  99  74  94 /   0  10  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  99  73  95 /  10  10  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74 100  74  97 /  10  10  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  97  72  91 /   0  10  20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           74 109  82 101 /   0  10  10  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  98  72  92 /   0  10  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             72 104  74  98 /  10  10  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        74 100  72  95 /  10  10  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  97  75  93 /   0  10  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       76 101  75  96 /  10  10  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77 102  76  97 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...29
Aviation...18