519
FXUS64 KEWX 280155
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
855 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue near the Rio Grande well to the
south of Eagle Pass. Have kept Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336 going
there as some development into Dimmit, Maverick, and Zavala counties
is possible in the next hour or so. Elsewhere, activity has rapidly
waned with loss of heating due to sunset. With no additional forcing
expected, have cancelled the Watch early, removed thunder mention,
and reduced or removed POPs.

Although heat index values remain elevated in a few spots, have
allowed all heat products to expire on schedule. Those few spots will
fall below 108 by Midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Latest visible satellite images are showing a scattered to broken
low level cloud deck across the coastal plains while the rest of
South Central Texas enjoys mostly sunny skies. There are a few high
clouds arriving from the west associated with elevated moisture and
from the top of the storms that are already ongoing across the
Serranias del Burro Mountains. This activity out west may take
several hours to make it into parts of the Rio Grande later this
afternoon and early evening. In the meantime, temperatures continue
to climb into the 90s and ranging from 100 to 101 degrees along the
Rio Grande as of 130 PM. A Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning
continues in effect for most of South Central Texas through 8 PM
this evening. Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values of
110 to 114 are forecast for the I-35 corridor and from 114 to 117
across the coastal plains through early this evening.

Circling back to the storms mentioned above, some of them could
make into the Rio Grande later this afternoon and early evening as
they develop ahead of the dry-line. Another area of convective
initiation is expected ahead of a cold front over central Texas.
Some of these storms could be developing over parts of the southern
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country late this afternoon through this
evening. If they do manage to develop, the main threats will be
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storm activity should be over by
midnight tonight.

Much cooler temperatures are forecast for Tuesday as clouds linger
around for most of the day and there are better chances for showers
and storms. Tuesday`s highs are forecast to range from the low to
mid 90s across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor to upper 90s and
up to 101 for the coastal plains and along the Rio Grande. Tuesday`s
weather setup brings the potential for strong to severe storms
across most areas of South Central Texas as storms develop ahead of
the dry-line and a quasi-stationary frontal boundary over central
Texas. It is possible that a linear MCS develops over the San Angelo
CWA and then pushes into the Rio Grande/southern Edwards
Plateau/Hill Country and parts of the I-35 corridor late afternoon
continuing into the evening. The main threats are likely to be
damaging wind gusts of 60 mph and greater and large to very hail.
The storm system weakens as it moves into the coastal plains and
then over the middle Texas coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

The beginning of the long term period will see temperatures closer
to normal values along with daily low to medium chances for
thunderstorms. The thunderstorm chances can be largely attributed to
a stationary front across the northern portion of the state through
the remainder of the work week and occasional upper level
disturbances riding over the ridge which will remain centered over
Mexico. While this particular pattern results in daily chances for
rain, the exact locations where the rain will fall remain uncertain
due to the subtle and fairly broad forcing. Regardless, daily
isolated to scattered convection will help keep temperatures at bay
through the week due to increased cloud cover and rain cooled air.
Guidance shows a slight northward shift of the higher upper level
heights over the coming weekend, which will likely bring a slight
warming trend and drier conditions heading into the beginning of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

SHRA/TSRA over the Hill Country to along the Rio Grande will move
east this evening and dissipate later this evening. Have VCTS at the
sites until 03Z. Expect redevelopment Tuesday afternoon into evening
and have introduced PROB30s for KDRT at 28/21Z and for KSAT/KAUS at
29/00Z. Otherwise, VFR skies turn MVFR overnight, then mix to VFR by
midday Tuesday. However, expect some reductions to VSBY, perhaps
CIGs in SHRA/TSRA. Southeasterly winds gradually decrease this
evening, then become breezy on Tuesday. There could be strong wind
gusts near/in SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  94  72  88 /  20  20  50  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  94  71  89 /  20  20  50  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  97  73  92 /  20  20  50  40
Burnet Muni Airport            73  90  70  85 /  20  30  60  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 101  77  98 /  20  40  40  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  91  70  85 /  20  30  60  50
Hondo Muni Airport             75  97  71  93 /  20  20  50  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  95  72  91 /  20  20  50  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  94  73  88 /  20  20  30  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  96  73  92 /  20  20  50  30
Stinson Muni Airport           77  97  74  93 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...05
Aviation...04