310
FXUS64 KEWX 170821
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
321 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An upper level trough axis stretches from northwest Texas into
northeast Sonora Mexico. A weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft
is seen on satellite upstream of our region, across interior Mexico,
and isolated convection has been noted in the higher terrain of
Mexico. A few HREF members indicate the impulse generating isolated
showers and storms closer to the Rio Grande through the overnight
hours and into south Texas through the morning hours, potentially
also clipping our southeast counties, southeast of San Antonio.

Then, as the final shortwave digs east through the base of the
trough, isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to
develop out of Coahulia Mexico and into the Rio Grande and southern
Edwards Plateau late this afternoon and evening. A few HREF members
also indicate isolated showers and storms developing into the Hill
Country and as far east as the I-35 corridor this evening. A few
storms late this afternoon and evening will be capable of producing
small hail and downbursts producing gusty winds up to 50 mph. Some
isolated showers and storms could linger past sunset, until the
upper level forcing passes east overnight.

Weak upper level ridging is forecast to build over the area on
Saturday, producing dry, mostly sunny, and much warmer temperatures.
High temperatures on Saturday are forecast in the the low to mid 90s
across the Hill Country and along and east of I-35 and I-37, in the
upper 90s along the U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio, and 100 to
104 degrees along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An upper level ridge will slowly move across TX over the weekend and
strengthen during the beginning of next week. The low level flow
will be southeasterly through the end of the period. Hot
temperatures will continue into next week. Highs will be from the
90s to 105 Sunday. The central part of the area may warm a few
degrees more Monday and Tuesday. Record highs may be possible along
the Rio Grande, and we may see our first 100 degree day in the
central part of the CWA. We may need to issue some heat products
early next week. Wednesday the upper ridge will shift toward the
east,and the flow over TX will become west-southwesterly. A
shortwave trough will move through the pattern and may provide enough
lift to generate some showers and thunderstorms across the northern
half of the CWA. Most of the area will stay dry. Temperatures may
drop a couple of degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Isolated TSRA will track near SAT over the next hour, and gradually
weaken. Additional SHRA and isolated TSRA development is possible
overnight southeast of SAT. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings overnight for
most locations, but the Rio Grande. Some pockets of IFR ceilings and
IFR to MVFR visibilities in BR are possible around sunrise, mainly
near and north of a T82-BAZ-3T5 line, including AUS. VFR conditions
developing Friday afternoon. Isolated to scattered TSRA activity is
indicated by several CAMs to develop in NW Mexico and along the Rio
Grande Friday afternoon, tracking east near DRT late afternoon and
early evening and potentially into the Hill Country and lesser
confidence near the I-35 corridor. For now we have included a PROB30
TSRA group at just DRT for this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  67  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  84  65  92  70 /  10  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  66  94  70 /  10  20   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            82  65  91  70 /   0  20   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  70 105  77 /  20  20   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  66  91  70 /   0  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             90  66  98  70 /  10  20   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        85  65  93  69 /  10  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   82  67  90  70 /  10  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       87  67  95  72 /  10  20   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           87  68  96  72 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...05
Aviation...76