Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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923 FXUS64 KEWX 191949 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Key Messages: *Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will continue into early Thursday. *Confidence in the highest rainfall totals is seen across the far southern portions of the area where the Flood Watch remains. *Rain amounts have trended down overall. *Isolated tornado threat remains across our southeastern-most counties into this evening. Discussion: Rain bands from what is now the first named storm of the season, Alberto, are moving in over South Central Texas with some embedded thunderstorms. So far, rainfall rates have been tame, but as heavier showers move into the region, especially south of I-10, any embedded thunderstorms could contain rainfall rates of 1-2"/hour. There is still a low end threat for flooding and flash flooding, and the Flood Watch remains in effect for our southern tier of counties through midday Thursday. Overall, rainfall totals are expected to remain between 1-3 inches over the southern CWA, with between 0.5-2" for the remainder of the area. The 12Z sounding out of CRP showed PWATs in excess of 2.5" along with a nearly saturated profile all the way up to 100mb. Long, skinny profiles, along with modest CAPE and high moisture environments can produce significant tropical rainfall. Despite lowered amounts, this is still a beneficial event, as it will act to keep temperatures down during what is usually one of the hottest and most humid months of the year and it should help limit short term drought impacts as we add some moisture to area soils without widespread severe weather. Speaking of severe weather, there is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for tornadoes over the Coastal Plains, but the primary concern continues to be locally heavy rainfall and the low end chance for flooding. The heavier rain threat should end from east to west by sunrise Thursday, but there is still a threat for widely scattered showers and storms to develop Thursday afternoon. The primary threat would be locally heavy rainfall, but widespread flooding and flash flooding are not expected at this time beyond 18Z Thursday. Temperatures will remain some 5-15 degrees below normal for late June as well, so the first official day of Summer will certainly not feel like it across South Central Texas. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 As the remnants of Alberto dissipate over Mexico there will still be a deep, moist airmass over South Central Texas. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday with the best chances along and south of I-10/Hwy 90. The low level flow over the weekend and early next week will be from the southeast. This will keep a warm, moist airmass in place. A weak upper ridge will allow for isolated convection driven by daytime heating each day Saturday through Wednesday over the Coastal Plains. Some days the storms will spread toward the west and north. Chances will mostly be slight and most places will remain dry through the period. Temperatures will slowly warm through the long term to back above normal by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 To put it simply, the TAFS are a mess over the next 24-30 hours. The expectation is for rain to overspread the region from west to east over the next few hours, but with continued mention in the TAFS through the remainder of the period. MVFR to IFR Cigs are likely through the day today and should continue through midday Thursday before lifting to VFR by the early afternoon hours. Winds are expected to remain quite strong through this afternoon and evening, peaking after sunset between 20-25 kts, and gusting to 30-35 kts at times through early Thursday morning. Expect a mainly easterly to east-southeasterly component. A round of +RA is possible mainly between 22-02Z at SAT and SSF, with AUS seeing SHRA through the late evening hours. Have opted for PROB30s at AUS and SAT to account for scattered storms possible tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 90 75 93 / 50 40 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 90 74 91 / 50 40 10 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 88 74 91 / 70 50 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 74 88 74 90 / 50 30 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 90 77 93 / 90 70 60 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 89 73 90 / 40 30 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 74 88 74 89 / 80 60 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 89 72 90 / 60 50 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 90 74 90 / 40 40 0 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 89 75 90 / 80 60 10 30 Stinson Muni Airport 76 89 76 91 / 80 60 10 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Atascosa-De Witt-Dimmit- Frio-Gonzales-Karnes-Lavaca-Maverick-Wilson-Zavala. && $$ Short-Term...MMM Long-Term...05 Aviation...MMM