148
FXUS64 KEWX 191134 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
634 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Early morning clouds have returned to the local area especially
along the I-35 corridor and parts of the southern Edwards Plateau.
Simulated total cloud cover HRRR product shows cloud coverage
expanding across most locations across South Central Texas for the
rest of the overnight period through mid Thursday morning.
Afterward, clouds break for partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies in
the afternoon. Highs are forecast to range from the lower to upper
90s. Upper level ridging dominates the local area and therefore dry
weather conditions for the most part. However, a mid level low
pressure system lingering across the Rio Grande in combination with
daytime heating and pwats around 2 inches could result in very
isolated shower/storm activity across the Coastal Plains and along
the I-35 corridor late afternoon and early evening. 00Z HREF shows
limited qpf across the same areas.

Clouds begin to develop and spread across South Central Texas late
evening through Friday morning. Overnight lows are forecast to range
from the lower to upper 70s. Can`t rule out patchy fog across the
Coastal Plains around dawn to about 8 am. Clouds break once again
mid to late morning to partly cloudy and mostly sunny skies in the
afternoon. Friday`s highs are forecast to range from the lower 90s
across the Hill Country to near 100 across the Austin metro area.
Dry weather continues across the local area with very limited
shower/storm activity if any develops as drier conditions are in
place with pwats in the 1.5 to 1.6 inch range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Upper level ridging over our area this weekend gives way to upper
level troughing next week. This allows a cold front to approach our
area late Sunday into Monday, with passage Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Most operational models and an overwhelming majority of
the ensembles show this and will favor this consensus. However it
must be noted that a few show a passage mid way through our area
Sunday night into Monday. Following the consensus, will have slight
chance POPs Sunday afternoon through Monday for the Edwards Plateau
into Val Verde County and Tuesday night into Wednesday across most
areas. Above average temperatures continue until the frontal
passage, then near to perhaps below average in its wake.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A low cloud deck expands across the I-35 corridor westward to the Rio
Grande Plains. A few of these clouds are passing across KAUS but
thicker ones are over KSAT. KSSF, and KDRT where MVFR cigs are likely
to remain for at least 3 more hours (15z). VFR conditions are then
forecast after 15z continuing through late tonight. Southeast winds
6 to 10 knots are forecast for this forecast cycle with gusts up to
17 knots especially over KDRT this afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  75 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  98  75  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  75 100  73 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            97  74  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  79  97  79 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             97  75  97  73 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  74  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   97  75  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  77  98  75 /  10  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  78  98  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...04
Aviation...17