Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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852 FXUS64 KEWX 180533 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1233 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 There is an upper level ridge over the southern plains this afternoon. The low level flow is from the southeast over most of South-Central Texas keeping a warm, moist airmass in place. Temperatures range from the middle 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints from the middle 60s to lower 70s. The upper ridge will remain in place through the short term period. Southeasterly flow in the low levels will also continue. This will keep the weather dry through Wednesday night. The above normal temperatures will also continue. Lows both tonight and tomorrow night will be mostly in the 70s. Along the Rio Grande there may be record warm lows. High temperatures Wednesday will be in the 90s. We do not have any records in the forecast, but some places could be within a couple of degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Ridging at the 500mb level will strengthen and expand over South Central Texas late week and result in continued hot and dry conditions. By late in the weekend, a trough will approach from the west, but with recent model trends forcing this trough further north, our chance at any sort of rainfall or cold front have decreased. With the ridge expected to hold strong, we may see some slightly cooler temperatures with the passage of the trough to our north, but for the most part, we will be holding with the status quo with afternoons in the 90s and mornings in the upper 60s to middle 70s. There may yet be some hope of the ridge finally breaking down by the middle of next week, just outside this forecast package. For now, ensembles are not too interested in a cooler pattern. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions are forecast for the next several hours across the I-35 terminals before MVFR and IFR cigs build and affect them. Those low cigs are forecast from 10z to 14z Wed. By 15z, cigs return to VFR for the I-35 sites and remain through the night. For KDRT, MVFR cigs are forecast for a few hours around 12z and back to VFR by 15z. Southeast to south winds of 8 knots or less are expected overnight into Wednesday morning. The southerly wind flow continues on Wednesday afternoon with speeds around 7 to 9 knots and gusting up to 18 knots at KDRT. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Record High Temperatures Sep 17 Austin Bergstrom....99 (2005*) Austin Camp Mabry...99 (2021) Del Rio............103 (2021) San Antonio.........98 (1997) * denotes previous years && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 99 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 75 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 96 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 97 79 98 79 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 95 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 97 74 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 96 77 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 97 78 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...04 Aviation...17