265
FXUS64 KEWX 202322
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
622 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Latest GOES 16 Day Cloud Phase imagery shows numerous showers and a
few thunderstorms embedded within sweeping across South Central
Texas from east to west. Overall flow between the SFC-300mb remains
easterly, and with PWATs in the 2.00"+ realm, expect some brief
heavy downpours in any showers that move through. Overall, expect
cooler than normal temperatures for the first official day of Summer
with highs in the 80s for most.

Any showers and storms should largely move into the Rio Grande
Plains after sunset this evening as daytime heating wanes. On
Friday, the Subtropical Ridge that`s been "baking" the Midwest and
Northeast, will slide further south and west, effectively drying
things out for most areas outside of the Rio Grande Plains.
Continued showers and storms will be possible, but coverage will be
rather sparse. Temperatures should respond as more sunshine breaks
out across the CWA with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Friday,
night, some patchy fog may develop late if we can clear skies out
enough, but more than likely, low clouds will form first as we move
into the start of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The low level flow over the weekend and early next week will be from
the east through southeast. This will keep a warm, moist airmass in
place. A weak upper ridge will allow for isolated convection driven
by daytime heating each day Saturday through Thursday over the
Coastal Plains. Some days the storms will spread toward the west and
north. Chances will mostly be slight and most places will remain dry
through the period. Temperatures will slowly warm through the long
term to back above normal by the middle of next week. With dewpoints
in the 70s during the afternoons, heat indices will be above 100 and
we may need some heat advisories next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Low confidence forecast for the 00z TAFs with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms ongoing across south central Texas. When
showers are not directly impacting the terminals, VFR conditions
should prevail however, lower flight categories are expected as
showers directly move over the terminal. Should see a general
decline of convective coverage after the first 3 to 4 hours of this
TAF cycle. As we move past the 06Z hour, do expect to see MVFR
ceilings move into the terminals and persist well into the daylight
hours. Unfortunately as the ceilings lift after 15z tomorrow then
there are chances for showers and thunderstorms once again. Have
inserted a PROB30 group to cover these chances for the I-35
terminals. Think KDRT is far enough west that convection may not
impact the terminal until after 00z Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  92  74  95 /  30  20   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  91  72  93 /  30  20   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  91  72  93 /  30  30   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  89  73  92 /  20  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  93  77  95 /  70  40  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  91  72  92 /  20  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  89  73  91 /  30  30   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  89  70  91 /  30  30   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  89  72  91 /  20  30   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  90  74  92 /  30  30   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           76  91  75  93 /  20  30   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...05
Aviation...36