Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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539 FXUS64 KEWX 201721 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION (18Z TAFS)... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Key Messages: *Moderate rainfall will continue this morning in the western half of the area. *The threat for widespread flooding has ended and the Flood Watch has been cancelled. *Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast today and with tropical moisture still in place, could produce locally heavy rain. Discussion: Rain associated with Tropical Storm Alberto continues to move west across South Central Texas early this morning. Due to westward track of this storm, storm total precipitation has remained on the light to moderate side given our proximity from the center circulation. The eastern half of the area will see dry conditions through this morning, while beneficial rainfall continues in the west through the morning hours. With current rain rates remaining tame and the general lull in the east, have opted to cancel the Flood Watch early. Rain chances do return across a majority of the area today in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Moderate CAPE but little shear will keep any storms non-severe with locally heavy rain the main threat given PWATS still on the order of 1.75-2.25 inches. Widespread flooding or flash flooding is not anticipated with this activity. Mostly cloudy skies will help keep temperatures below average again today, generally ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Any showers or thunderstorms will dissipate around sunset with another mostly dry period in the forecast through Friday morning. Remnants from Alberto will keep deep, tropical moisture in the area with showers and thunderstorms possible again Friday. With little upper level support, expect more isolated coverage of any storm activity. Cloud cover will be more scattered this afternoon as well which will bump afternoon highs up 2 or 3 degrees from those seen today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The center of the Subtropical Ridge shifts west over Texas to over the southwestern states this weekend and remains there through the middle of next week. A potential tropical system indicated in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico should move west into Mexico early next week. NHC currently (20/06Z) has a 50 percent chance of tropical cyclone development. Its only impact on South Central Texas will be a resurgence of tropical moisture on Sunday into Monday. An unseasonably moist airmass with PWs of 1.4 to 2.2 inches remains over South Central Texas through the period. While the Ridge will provide some subsidence to inhibit convection, heating of the increased PWs should be able to overcome this for low chances of daytime showers and thunderstorms over our far southern areas on most days, though up to the I-35 corridor Sunday and Monday. Locally heavy downpours are possible Sunday and Monday due to the increased PWs. Near to slightly above normal temperatures prevail through the period. With the recently increased soil moisture and the increased PWs, daytime mixing should be less efficient causing heat indices to possibly reach advisory levels on Monday through Wednesday along and east of the I-35 corridor. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The primary focus for the operational period will be the threat for VCTS/TSRA through 03Z followed by the formation of MVFR CIGS and perhaps some visby reductions at AUS after 08Z-09Z. Odds are favoring widely scattered storms through the afternoon, so will opt to go with prevailing FM group of TSRA at AUS, SAT, and SSF through the evening hours. Winds will remain out of a 060-090 direction at 10-20 kts with a few gusts here and there. After MVFR CIGS tonight, we should see a return to VFR CIGS by 16-18Z Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 92 74 95 / 30 20 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 91 72 93 / 30 20 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 91 72 93 / 30 30 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 89 73 92 / 20 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 93 77 95 / 60 40 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 91 72 92 / 20 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 75 89 73 91 / 30 30 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 89 70 91 / 30 30 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 89 72 91 / 20 30 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 90 74 92 / 30 30 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 76 91 75 93 / 20 30 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...27 Long-Term...04 Aviation...MMM