158
FXUS64 KEWX 200840
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
340 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Key Messages:

*Moderate rainfall will continue this morning in the western half of
the area.

*The threat for widespread flooding has ended and the Flood Watch
has been cancelled.

*Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast today and with
tropical moisture still in place, could produce locally heavy rain.

Discussion:

Rain associated with Tropical Storm Alberto continues to move west
across South Central Texas early this morning. Due to westward track
of this storm, storm total precipitation has remained on the light
to moderate side given our proximity from the center circulation.
The eastern half of the area will see dry conditions through this
morning, while beneficial rainfall continues in the west through the
morning hours. With current rain rates remaining tame and the
general lull in the east, have opted to cancel the Flood Watch
early.

Rain chances do return across a majority of the area today in the
form of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Moderate CAPE but
little shear will keep any storms non-severe with locally heavy rain
the main threat given PWATS still on the order of 1.75-2.25 inches.
Widespread flooding or flash flooding is not anticipated with this
activity. Mostly cloudy skies will help keep temperatures below
average again today, generally ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s.
Any showers or thunderstorms will dissipate around sunset with
another mostly dry period in the forecast through Friday morning.
Remnants from Alberto will keep deep, tropical moisture in the area
with showers and thunderstorms possible again Friday. With little
upper level support, expect more isolated coverage of any storm
activity. Cloud cover will be more scattered this afternoon as well
which will bump afternoon highs up 2 or 3 degrees from those seen
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The center of the Subtropical Ridge shifts west over Texas to over
the southwestern states this weekend and remains there through the
middle of next week. A potential tropical system indicated in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico should move west into Mexico early next
week. NHC currently (20/06Z) has a 50 percent chance of tropical
cyclone development. Its only impact on South Central Texas will be
a resurgence of tropical moisture on Sunday into Monday. An
unseasonably moist airmass with PWs of 1.4 to 2.2 inches remains
over South Central Texas through the period. While the Ridge will
provide some subsidence to inhibit convection, heating of the
increased PWs should be able to overcome this for low chances of
daytime showers and thunderstorms over our far southern areas on
most days, though up to the I-35 corridor Sunday and Monday. Locally
heavy downpours are possible Sunday and Monday due to the increased
PWs. Near to slightly above normal temperatures prevail through the
period. With the recently increased soil moisture and the increased
PWs, daytime mixing should be less efficient causing heat indices to
possibly reach advisory levels on Monday through Wednesday along and
east of the I-35 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Rain is moving west across South Central Texas with some heavier
bands forming behind the main cluster of showers. Prevailing rain
showers should end at I-35 sites around 08Z with only some VCSH
expected to linger near SAT/SSF through 10Z. DRT will likely see -RA
through this morning. The lull in activity is short lived as
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop across
the area this afternoon. Ceilings will generally be VFR/MVFR, with
IFR ceilings possible for the Hill Country, Rio Grande Plains, and
southern I-35 corridor near 10Z. Gradual improvement will be seen in
the morning although MVFR conditions may linger into the afternoon
for many locations. Gusty northeasterly wind will persist today with
gusts from 20-25 knots shifting from the east after 00Z Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  75  93  74 /  40  30  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  74  92  72 /  40  20  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  74  91  72 /  50  20  30   0
Burnet Muni Airport            88  74  90  73 /  30  20  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           91  77  93  77 /  80  70  50  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        89  73  91  72 /  20  20  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             87  74  90  73 /  60  30  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  73  90  71 /  50  20  30   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  74  90  73 /  40  20  30   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       87  75  90  74 /  60  20  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           88  76  92  75 /  60  20  30   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...04
Aviation...27