039
FXUS64 KEWX 220535
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1235 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

A few locations will likely briefly reach or exceed Heat Advisory
criteria this afternoon, though the previous shift issued a
widespread Special Weather Statement to cover this threat and no
changes will be made there. Otherwise this afternoon/evening, an
isolated storm may try to develop in the vicinity of
Llano/Gillespie/Burnet Counties which could briefly become
strong/severe. There is low confidence in this occurring, but just
enough confidence to add in a 10% PoP with weather mentioned into
the forecast grids.

Low clouds will then redevelop overnight with some areas of minor
reduced visibility likely noticeable around and shortly after sunset
due to a combination of moisture and smoke from Mexico/Central
America trapped near the surface. The temperature and heat index
forecast for tomorrow looks pretty similar to today, so a few
counties may need a Heat Advisory or at least another fairly
widespread Special Weather Statement, though we will let the
overnight shift make that decision again for tomorrow. Slightly
better chances for storms are in the forecast for mainly Hill
Country areas tomorrow afternoon/evening as a weak disturbance in
the 500mb flow moves overhead across portions of north and central
Texas. The better chances for storms will be to the north of our
CWA, though any storms that develop or move into our counties will
have the potential to be severe with large hail and damaging wind

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Thursday stays hot but Friday through Memorial Day will see the
early season heat and humidity become even more oppressive across
South-Central Texas. Mid-level ridging centered across Mexico will
intensify and nudge a bit more into the state. Additionally, soil
moisture levels from precedent spring rains and a light to moderate
south-southeasterly onshore flow off the gulf with surface high
pressure to our east should also allow for elevated dew points to
remain across the area. Both daily record maximum temperatures and
daily record high minimum temperatures could be threatened and/or
broken this weekend in some locations. The highs along the Rio
Grande will climb into the 105 to 110 degree range each afternoon
while elsewhere the upper 90s and into the 100 to 105 degree range
will become common. The heat indices will run even higher for the
majority of the region with peak values ranging from 105 to 115
degrees. Heat products are likely necessary from Friday through
Memorial day, including Heat Advisories and/or Excessive Heat
Warnings. Those that are spending an extended time outdoors this
holiday weekend and not acclimated to the early season heat are
susceptible to heat related illness, if not taking proper heat
precautions.

Heat Precautions: Never leave people or pets alone within a closed
car, stay hydrated by drinking plenty of water, wear loose-fitting
and light colored clothing, and take frequent breaks within the
shade and air conditioning.

Late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening has a low chance (15-
20%) for a shower or storm across our northern most Hill Country
counties. Chances are to decline into the 10 percent or less range
from Friday into Monday. Slight chances (15-20%) return starting
Monday night and Tuesday in association with a southward moving
front and any associated outflow boundaries. These boundaries also
look to potentially relieve some of the worse of the heat into
Tuesday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Stratus is quickly developing across the Coastal Plains, I-35
corridor, and Hill Country, and is forecast to expand west into the
Rio Grande early Wednesday morning. Mainly MVFR ceilings are
expected, although some isolated pockets of IFR ceilings can`t be
ruled out over the Hill Country. In addition, visibility will be
reduced to MVFR in some spots overnight and Wednesday morning in a
mixture of BR and HZ. Ceilings are forecast to scatter out 15Z-17Z,
with VFR conditions through the afternoon, but 6SM visibility in HZ
for some locations. Finally, isolated TSRA are forecast to develop
in Mexico after 21Z, and there is a low probability (20%) of storms
moving across the Rio Grande 21Z-03Z. The better chances for storms
will develop after 21Z across north-central and may enter northern
areas of south-central Texas after 00Z Thu. There is a 30% chance of
TSRAs reaching AUS Wednesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              94  76  93  76 /  30  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  75  92  76 /  20  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  75  95  76 /  20  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            90  73  90  74 /  30  20  20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  80 106  80 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        92  74  91  75 /  30  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             99  74  99  74 /  10  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  74  93  75 /  20  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  76  91  77 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  76  95  76 /  20  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           97  77  96  77 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Gale
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...76