252
FXUS64 KEWX 250512
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1212 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 10 PM CDT across
Burnet, Llano, and Williamson Counties. Main severe hazards will be
large to very large and damaging winds with any severe storms that
are able to move into these areas. The tornado threat is low but
isolated spinup is possible. Locally heavy rainfall could also be
possible with any of these cells.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Clouds are lingering a bit longer than expected across central
portions of the area, which is keeping temperatures/heat indices a
bit cooler than they otherwise would be. Outside of the clouds
however, such as for areas along and east of I-35, heat index values
are already near or exceeding heat advisory criteria. The clouds
should eventually scatter more, and temperatures/heat index values
will then begin to catch up. With that said, the heat advisory will
remain in effect through 7pm.

Outside of the heat, a 20-30% chance for storms remains in the
forecast this afternoon and evening for our northern counties.
Recent satellite imagery shows one failed attempt at convection
already across northern Lampasas County, though CI will likely hold
off for a couple more hours until a weak front moves closer to the
area to provide better convergence/lift. Any storm that develops may
quickly become severe in the high CAPE/decent shear environment that
is in place. Large to very large hail will be the main threat, with
a lower concern for damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado.
Once developed, storms should generally push in an ESE direction and
gradually weaken through the evening hours.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected for tomorrow due to a
slight northward expansion of the higher 500mb heights. The main
uncertainty tomorrow will be how much dewpoints can mix out. The NBM
keeps dewpoints relatively high, mainly over the western portion of
the area, but some high res models show some better mixing.
Regardless, another Heat Advisory will be needed for portions of the
area tomorrow, though some adjustments the area vs today`s advisory
will likely be needed and therefore we plan to let the overnight
shift handle issuing the advisories/warnings on a day by day basis.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Dangerous early season heat continues Sunday and Memorial Day as an
upper level ridge remains over Mexico. A dryline will move into the
some of our western most areas each afternoon leading to drier
dewpoints behind the feature, but east of the dryline humid
conditions will lead to elevated heat indices in the triple digits.
Maximum temperatures each afternoon and warm overnight lows will
likely break some records in a few locations through Monday, with
DRT possibly beating their all time high temperature record for the
month of May which currently stands at 109 degrees. That said,
expect Heat Advisories or possibly even an Excessive Heat Warning
both Sunday and Monday. With prolonged heat, the body has less time
to recover and people can be more prone to heat related illnesses.
Take proper precautions such as limiting time outside or finding
places in communities to get cool such as libraries or malls.

A trough located over the Central Plains on Sunday will move towards
the northeast on Monday with a front expected to near the area
Monday night into Tuesday. High temperatures and heat indices
finally decrease slightly Tuesday and the rest of the week, which
should end the need for any additional heat products. The
aforementioned front may stay fairly stagnant through much of the
week which will also aid in the precipitation chances next week.
Slightly lesser chances are seen Monday night for precipitation now,
with increasing chances for rain Tuesday through Thursday. The
synoptic pattern is pretty messy during this period leading to low
confidence on any rain/thunderstorm locations or timing. Many have
not seen rain in a while and this unfortunately is not a scenario for
a widespread, sweeping rain, so some may again miss out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions are prevailing across the area at the present time
with some scattered low-clouds beginning to develop east of the I35
sites. Should see the MVFR ceilings move into the I35 sites later
tonight. Can`t completely rule out some IFR ceilings at times, but
chances were too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. Chances for
MVFR are a bit lower for DRT and will just mention SCT015. Southerly
flow will continue through the period with slightly higher speeds
during the afternoon periods.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

         FRI        SAT        SUN       MON
        05/24      05/25      05/26     05/27
------------------------------------------------
AUS    99/1955   100/2011    97/2018  100/2011
ATT   104/1925   100/2011    99/2018  100/2011
SAT   101/1989*  103/1989   100/1989  100/2011
DRT   109/2000   104/2011   106/2018  106/2018

* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  98  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  99  76 101 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  96  72  96 /  10   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           82 110  74 109 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  97  73  98 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             75 105  74 104 /  10   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  98  74 100 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  95  77  96 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       77 100  76 101 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77 101  77 102 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Gale
Long-Term...27
Aviation...29