772
FXUS64 KEWX 180650
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
150 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Low clouds are developing across the southern Edwards Plateau and
parts of the Rio Grande Plains. Most of the hires models suggest for
this pattern to continue overnight through the middle of the
morning. Clouds lift and scatter out for partly cloudy to mostly
sunny skies this afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to reach
the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Hill Country and mid to upper
90s elsewhere. No rain expected throughout the day as upper ridging
dominates the local area.

The dry weather conditions continue this evening and into the
overnight period. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the
lower 70s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to
mid and upper 70s across the rest of the local area. Low clouds
return overnight across most locations for mostly cloudy skies and
stay throughout the morning hours.

By noon on Thursday, partly cloudy skies are forecast to dominate
the local area with highs in the lower 90s across the Hill Country
and southern Edwards Plateau while the rest of the local area gets
into the mid to upper 90s. Rain is not expected across South Central
Texas for this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Upper level ridge over most of Texas late this week gradually shifts
to the south this weekend with the axis from the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast to over far southern Texas into Mexico early next week.
A series of upper level troughs move out over the Plains and Central
states this weekend into early next week with their dynamics passing
north of our area. There remains some uncertainty with respect to
the lower levels. Most recent models/ensembles have kept any frontal
boundaries north of our area while an occasional operational run
have it briefly move into our area. Have favored the consensus and
keep it north of our area. As a result, with no forcing mechanisms,
rain is not forecast. The exception being Sunday afternoon when a
surface boundary may approach our area bringing a few showers to
parts of the Edwards Plateau. Although no fronts are expected, the
lower level thermal ridge slowly weakens this weekend into early
next week leading to a slight "cool" down. However, temperatures
remain above normal through the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for the next several hours across the
I-35 terminals before MVFR and IFR cigs build and affect them. Those
low cigs are forecast from 10z to 14z Wed. By 15z, cigs return to VFR
for the I-35 sites and remain through the night. For KDRT, MVFR cigs
are forecast for a few hours around 12z and back to VFR by 15z.
Southeast to south winds of 8 knots or less are expected overnight
into Wednesday morning. The southerly wind flow continues on
Wednesday afternoon with speeds around 7 to 9 knots and gusting up to
18 knots at KDRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              99  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  75  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            96  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  79  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  75  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  74  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  74  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           97  78  98  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...04
Aviation...17