Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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065 FXUS64 KEWX 150514 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1214 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Looking at the latest GOES 16 regional water vapor imagery, we note the flattened Subtropical Ridge over the Baja of California extending eastward into South Central Texas. This should result in synoptic scale sinking motion through the short term period with hot and dry weather expected through at least Saturday. An expansive Cu field is noted on visible satellite imagery over central and south Texas this afternoon and that is expected to happen once again on Saturday despite high pressure aloft, as easterly to southeasterly surface flow off the Gulf of Mexico keeps low level moisture in play to form those clouds. Temperatures should mainly be kept in check, with highs in the 90s for most and heat indices in the 100-105 range. The Rio Grande Plains will continue to top out in the 100-103 range through Saturday. A much more interesting forecast is in play for the long term. See below. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The general morphology for the extended period is familiar to climatological patterns seen for "slugs of moisture" coming up from the Gulf into Texas/Mexico. There are prospects for tropical cyclone development in the Bay of Campeche, but we are still at an early stage for if/where/when (refer to NHC Outlook for more information). The GFS and lesser extent ECMWF seem to have a good handle on the familiar pattern, with increasing precipitable water and decreasing pressure through the weekend. The net result of that will be slowly increasing rain chances Sunday through Tuesday, followed by scattered storms areawide next Wednesday through Friday. There are still a wide range of possibilities depending on tropical cyclone formation, but at this time, the threat of heavy rain for our area seems limited, and and overall rain chances top out around 50 percent next Wednesday and Thursday, so not a washout for outdoor activities. Temperatures and heat will be above seasonal normals through Monday, then near normal for Tuesday/Wednesday, and then below normal with the cloudcover and scattered storms next Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Besides patchy MVFR ceilings that are possible at SAT/SSF around 12- 15Z, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light wind overnight becomes southeasterly at I-35 sites generally less than 13 knots. A bit higher wind speeds are expected in the west along the Rio Grande including at DRT. Better chances for more widespread MVFR ceilings are seen early Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 97 75 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 73 96 75 / 0 0 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 74 98 76 / 0 0 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 94 73 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 103 79 103 80 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 94 73 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 97 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 95 73 95 75 / 0 0 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 93 71 94 75 / 0 0 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 97 76 98 77 / 0 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 98 76 99 77 / 0 0 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...MMM Long-Term...Zeitler Aviation...27