Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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772 FXUS64 KEWX 180027 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 727 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 There is an upper level ridge over the southern plains this afternoon. The low level flow is from the southeast over most of South-Central Texas keeping a warm, moist airmass in place. Temperatures range from the middle 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints from the middle 60s to lower 70s. The upper ridge will remain in place through the short term period. Southeasterly flow in the low levels will also continue. This will keep the weather dry through Wednesday night. The above normal temperatures will also continue. Lows both tonight and tomorrow night will be mostly in the 70s. Along the Rio Grande there may be record warm lows. High temperatures Wednesday will be in the 90s. We do not have any records in the forecast, but some places could be within a couple of degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Ridging at the 500mb level will strengthen and expand over South Central Texas late week and result in continued hot and dry conditions. By late in the weekend, a trough will approach from the west, but with recent model trends forcing this trough further north, our chance at any sort of rainfall or cold front have decreased. With the ridge expected to hold strong, we may see some slightly cooler temperatures with the passage of the trough to our north, but for the most part, we will be holding with the status quo with afternoons in the 90s and mornings in the upper 60s to middle 70s. There may yet be some hope of the ridge finally breaking down by the middle of next week, just outside this forecast package. For now, ensembles are not too interested in a cooler pattern. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 721 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR skies will last through around 08Z with a steady onshore wind expected to form considerable MVFR stratus over most of the area after 08Z. Coverage should be typical, impacting SAT/SSF the most and then DRT and AUS the least. Most of the area should lift back to VFR by around 16Z. No convection is expected and the diurnal wind trends should be a little more persistent and not as light and shifty as they had been in recent days. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Record High Temperatures Sep 17 Austin Bergstrom....99 (2005*) Austin Camp Mabry...99 (2021) Del Rio............103 (2021) San Antonio.........98 (1997) * denotes previous years && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 95 73 96 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 97 79 98 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 95 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 96 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 98 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...18 Long-Term...Platt Aviation...18