196
FXUS64 KEWX 161909
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
209 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

An omega block pattern will remain in place from the short term
period and beyond with the mid-level ridging portion of this block
pattern remaining settled atop the state of Texas. Above average
temperatures continue as a result with perhaps more daily record high
temperatures being approached. See the climate section below for
more details. While the rain chances remain very limited, a residual
but decaying surface boundary that extends from the Hill Country
eastward into portions of the Coastal Plains may be able to kick off
a few stray showers both this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.
I have elected to add a 10 percent mention for a rain shower in the
most favored corridor. Southern Maverick into Dimmit County could
also see the opportunity for a spotty shower this afternoon in
association with a tongue of higher residual moisture that remains
wedged up along the Rio Grande after the effects from the leftover
mid-level energy and moisture from recent Tropical Storm Ileana in
the Eastern Pacific. The moisture levels lower back towards normal
along the Rio Grande into Tuesday and should keep rain chances out of
the forecast there. Otherwise, a light flow maintains through the
period under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Mid-level ridging will start to overtake South Central Texas by mid
to late week, setting the stage for continued hot and dry conditions.
Highs each day will routinely climb into the mid to upper 90s along
with mornings in the 70s through Saturday. A trough over the western
CONUS will begin moving eastward this weekend, approaching the Texas
Panhandle by late Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms look to stay
north of our area with this storm system, but there is an off chance
that is could push a surface cold front into the Hill Country as soon
as next Sunday or Monday. This could help to flatten the ridging in
place and bring slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some
increased rain chances to our region by early next week. For now,
keep cranking that A.C.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period. A stray
shower is possible across the Hill Country to near the San Antonio
terminals both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon but probability
remains too low with the very limited areal extent to include any
mentions within the TAF package. The winds will remain generally
light of 10 knots or less from the east-northeast to the east-
southeast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Record High Temperatures

                     Sep 16       Sep 17       Sep 18

Austin Bergstrom....99 (2019*)...99 (2005*)...100 (2019)
Austin Camp Mabry..101 (2019)....99 (2021)....101 (2019)
Del Rio............101 (1997)...103 (2021).....99 (2021*)
San Antonio.........99 (1954)....98 (1997)....104 (2019)

* denotes previous years

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  99  75  98 /   0  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  98  74  97 /   0  10   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  98  74  98 /  10  10   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            71  95  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  97  78  97 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  97  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  97  74  95 /   0  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  98  76  97 /  10  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           76  98  76  98 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...Brady