Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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433 FXUS64 KEWX 151115 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 615 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Mostly clear skies are observed over South Central Texas early this morning. Some low cloud development is expected closer to sunrise near or just west of the San Antonio metro into portions of the western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. Clouds will quickly scatter through the morning with additional cumulus expected to develop through the afternoon. Today will be seasonably hot with highs around 100-103 degrees in the west over the Rio Grande Plains and in the mid to upper 90s elsewhere. High pressure aloft weakens today as a mid-level shortwave moves across the central and southern Plains leaving weak flow aloft through Sunday. Low level moisture increases Sunday bringing another round of low cloud development in the morning and scattered cumulus in the afternoon. There is a low chance an isolated shower or thunderstorm moves into the far eastern Coastal Plains in the afternoon, with better precipitation chances seen the following days. Sunday temperatures will be similar to those seen this afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Southeastern States early next week allowing a plume of tropical moisture to spread into Texas. We expect showers and thunderstorms as far west as the I-35 corridor on Monday and Tuesday. The Ridge builds back over Texas mid to late week guiding the plume toward the west with showers and thunderstorms spreading to the Rio Grande on Wednesday and Thursday. Models continue to show potential for development of a tropical system with NHC indicating a 50% chance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Models maintain consensus on a westward movement into and across Mexico. There is a potential for enhanced rainfall with PWs greater than 2 inches, possibly as high as 2.5 inches. However, there is uncertainty on where. Gusty winds are possible with the stronger storms. As the clouds and rain spread farther to the west, the above normal high temperatures gradually fall to near to below normal during the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Scattered MVFR ceilings may impact I-35 sites through 15Z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected for the rest of today. Southeasterly wind generally stays below 12 knots through this afternoon, increasing slightly during the evening. MVFR ceilings return to the area late tonight into Sunday morning. Highest confidence for these ceilings remains over SAT/SSF at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 97 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 73 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 93 74 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 103 80 102 79 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 94 72 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 97 75 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 73 94 75 / 0 0 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 97 76 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 98 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...27 Long-Term...04 Aviation...27